# Waste Management (WM.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/WM

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:08.371Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $224.19 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $89.68 per share, central $116.16 per share, high $135.80 per share. Buy at or below the central value $116.16 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:08.371Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.7% at the stated quote. About 6.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.04×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.18×

- FY2018: 0.18×

- FY2019: 0.18×

- FY2020: 0.16×

- FY2021: 0.17×

- FY2022: 0.17×

- FY2023: 0.19×

- FY2024: 0.19×

- FY2025: 0.18×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.19×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 20.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 18.0%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 28.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 29.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 11.6%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 25.2%

- FY2018: 22.6%

- FY2019: 20.9%

- FY2020: 16.7%

- FY2021: 20.4%

- FY2022: 21.7%

- FY2023: 21.5%

- FY2024: 18.0%

- FY2025: 19.4%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 20.0%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.01×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $12B

- Net income, five-year total: $12B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 37.3%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.6 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.2%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.11×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 0.96×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 22.6% vs 19.4%

- Per-share earnings: 2.65 to 6.70 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- Market cap gain: $57B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $9.8B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.0%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 12.3%

- Per-share value change: $4.05

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $2.65

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $6.70

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.58

- Average buyback yield: 1.6%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $11B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $20B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 22.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 19.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $2.65

- FY2017: $4.41

- FY2018: $4.45

- FY2019: $3.91

- FY2020: $3.52

- FY2021: $4.29

- FY2022: $5.39

- FY2023: $5.66

- FY2024: $6.81

- FY2025: $6.70

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -7.3%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.96×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 2.23×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.77×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -8.7%

- FY2017: -5.6%

- FY2018: -7.3%

- FY2019: -7.9%

- FY2020: -6.5%

- FY2021: -8.7%

- FY2022: -7.3%

- FY2023: -7.4%

- FY2024: -5.9%

- FY2025: -7.3%

## Holders

- [Bill Gates](https://gigainvestors.com/GFT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Allen Bond](https://gigainvestors.com/JIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 12.4% a year for ten years · sales +1.8%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:52.197Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 12.4% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-12: WM Q1 Earnings Call: Margin Pressure Despite Revenue Growth and Sustainability Investments ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wm-q1-earnings-call-margin-182355199.html))

- 2025-10-29: WM Q3 Deep Dive: Margin Pressures and Healthcare Integration Shape Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wm-q3-deep-dive-margin-124549613.html))

- 2026-01-30: WM Q4 Deep Dive: Margin Expansion and Cost Discipline Offset Revenue Miss ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wm-q4-deep-dive-margin-015556928.html))

- 2026-04-02: Waste Management Expands Into Renewable Gas As Valuation Near Fair Value ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/waste-management-expands-renewable-gas-002311498.html))

- 2026-07-30: WM Q2 Deep Dive: Improving Margins and Integration Progress Offset Softer Volume Trends ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/wm-q2-deep-dive-improving-202902997.html))

- 2026-08-14: WM's 2026 Outlook Tests Whether Margin Gains Can Offset Softer Volumes ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/wms-2026-outlook-tests-whether-143100918.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +1.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926012049/wm-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-02-09.

- FY2017: $14B 

- FY2018: $15B 

- FY2019: $15B 

- FY2020: $15B 

- FY2021: $18B 

- FY2022: $20B 

- FY2023: $20B 

- FY2024: $22B 

- FY2025: $25B 

- FY2026: $26B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 35%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926012049/wm-20251231x10k.htm; observed 2026-02-09.

- FY2017: 28.2% 

- FY2018: 28.1% 

- FY2019: 28.4% 

- FY2020: 27.6% 

- FY2021: 26.9% 

- FY2022: 27.2% 

- FY2023: 28.1% 

- FY2024: 29.1% 

- FY2025: 29.1% 

- FY2026: 35.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in waste management; annual sales are USD 25.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926012049/wm-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-09); FY2025: revenue 25204000000; grossProfit 7329000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); WM.US: Waste Management, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides environmental solutions to residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal customers in the United States, Canada, Western Europe, and internationally. It offers collection services, including picking up and transporting waste and recyclable materials from where it was generated to a transfer station, recovery facility, or disposal site; owns and operates transfer stations; and owns, develops, and operates landfill gas-to-energy facilities that produce renewable electricity and renewable natural gas. It also operates materials processing and commodities recycling services, including cardboard, paper, glass, metals, plastics, construction and demolition materials, and other recycling commodities are recovered for resale or redirected for other purposes; markets and resells recycling commodities; recycling brokerage services, such as managing the marketing of recyclable materials for third parties; and other strategic business solutions. In addition, the company collects recyclable food and yard waste, as well as markets and sells mulch, compost, soil amendments, and renewable energy; offers remediation and construction, and industrial waste services; and manages and markets fly ash. Further, it provides Regulated Waste and Compliance Services (RWCS), which offers compliance programs, as well as collection, processing, and disposal of regulated and specialized waste, including medical, pharmaceutical, and hazardous waste; and Secure Information Destruction (SID) services that include the collection of personal and confidential information for secure destruction and recycling of sorted office paper. The company was formerly known as USA Waste Services, Inc. and changed its name to Waste Management, Inc. in 1998. Waste Management, Inc. was founded in 1968 and is based in Houston, Texas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 28.1% to 29.1% during 2023–25; it earns 20.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 28.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 29.1%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926012049/wm-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-09); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 29.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.25220389102975144],[2018,0.22564263944233365],[2019,0.2087455288828892],[2020,0.16716293535114543],[2021,0.20440570204939537],[2022,0.21705547486212076],[2023,0.2146215438774086],[2024,0.179973973395026],[2025,0.1936032102201651],[2026,0.2000652969819299]]; median 0.20657561546614228. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 27% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926012049/wm-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-09); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.2688639785845742],[2022,0.27241344298913595],[2023,0.28145500832272596]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 92% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 37.3% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2016: growth capex 38000000; upkeep 1301000000; owner earnings 1182000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.032148900169204735.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2017: growth capex 133000000; upkeep 1376000000; owner earnings 1949000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.06824012314007183.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2018: growth capex 217000000; upkeep 1477000000; owner earnings 1925000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.11272727272727273.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2019: growth capex 244000000; upkeep 1574000000; owner earnings 1670000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.14610778443113773.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 1632000000; owner earnings 1638000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 1904000000; owner earnings 2022000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2022: growth capex 437000000; upkeep 2150000000; owner earnings 2238000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.19526362823949955.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2023: growth capex 611048369.0721645; upkeep 2283951630.9278355; owner earnings 2221048369.0721645. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2751170922618979.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); FY2024: growth capex 831000000; upkeep 2400000000; owner earnings 2746000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.3026219956300073.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926012049/wm-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-09); FY2025: growth capex 2492000000; upkeep 735000000; owner earnings 2708000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.9202363367799113.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); Incremental return on capital 0.3734137278109067, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); Dividend observations: [[2016,726000000],[2017,750000000],[2018,802000000],[2019,876000000],[2020,927000000],[2021,970000000],[2022,1077000000],[2023,1136000000],[2024,1210000000],[2025,1334000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); WM.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.253 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Our business is subject to operational and safety risks" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926012049/wm-20251231x10k.htm (filed 2026-02-09); Our business is subject to operational and safety risks

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 12.4% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 14.8%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-09); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.16575991526031497. Price 224.19; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.6779995613073042 → FY2025 6.6996536368134585. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $65.66 per share

- 2016-11: $69.52 per share

- 2016-12: $70.91 per share

- 2017-01: $69.50 per share

- 2017-02: $73.32 per share

- 2017-03: $72.92 per share

- 2017-04: $72.78 per share

- 2017-05: $72.91 per share

- 2017-06: $73.35 per share

- 2017-07: $75.15 per share

- 2017-08: $77.11 per share

- 2017-09: $78.27 per share

- 2017-10: $82.17 per share

- 2017-11: $82.25 per share

- 2017-12: $86.30 per share

- 2018-01: $88.43 per share

- 2018-02: $86.32 per share

- 2018-03: $84.12 per share

- 2018-04: $81.29 per share

- 2018-05: $82.71 per share

- 2018-06: $81.34 per share

- 2018-07: $90.00 per share

- 2018-08: $90.90 per share

- 2018-09: $90.36 per share

- 2018-10: $89.47 per share

- 2018-11: $93.75 per share

- 2018-12: $88.99 per share

- 2019-01: $95.67 per share

- 2019-02: $101.25 per share

- 2019-03: $103.91 per share

- 2019-04: $107.34 per share

- 2019-05: $109.35 per share

- 2019-06: $115.37 per share

- 2019-07: $117.00 per share

- 2019-08: $119.35 per share

- 2019-09: $115.00 per share

- 2019-10: $112.21 per share

- 2019-11: $112.91 per share

- 2019-12: $113.96 per share

- 2020-01: $121.70 per share

- 2020-02: $110.81 per share

- 2020-03: $92.56 per share

- 2020-04: $100.02 per share

- 2020-05: $106.75 per share

- 2020-06: $105.91 per share

- 2020-07: $109.60 per share

- 2020-08: $114.00 per share

- 2020-09: $113.17 per share

- 2020-10: $107.91 per share

- 2020-11: $119.13 per share

- 2020-12: $117.93 per share

- 2021-01: $111.32 per share

- 2021-02: $110.89 per share

- 2021-03: $129.02 per share

- 2021-04: $137.97 per share

- 2021-05: $140.68 per share

- 2021-06: $140.11 per share

- 2021-07: $148.26 per share

- 2021-08: $155.11 per share

- 2021-09: $149.36 per share

- 2021-10: $160.23 per share

- 2021-11: $160.67 per share

- 2021-12: $166.90 per share

- 2022-01: $150.44 per share

- 2022-02: $144.40 per share

- 2022-03: $158.50 per share

- 2022-04: $164.44 per share

- 2022-05: $158.51 per share

- 2022-06: $152.98 per share

- 2022-07: $164.56 per share

- 2022-08: $169.03 per share

- 2022-09: $160.21 per share

- 2022-10: $158.37 per share

- 2022-11: $167.72 per share

- 2022-12: $156.88 per share

- 2023-01: $154.73 per share

- 2023-02: $149.76 per share

- 2023-03: $163.17 per share

- 2023-04: $166.05 per share

- 2023-05: $161.92 per share

- 2023-06: $173.42 per share

- 2023-07: $163.79 per share

- 2023-08: $156.78 per share

- 2023-09: $152.44 per share

- 2023-10: $164.33 per share

- 2023-11: $170.99 per share

- 2023-12: $179.10 per share

- 2024-01: $185.63 per share

- 2024-02: $205.65 per share

- 2024-03: $213.15 per share

- 2024-04: $208.02 per share

- 2024-05: $210.73 per share

- 2024-06: $213.34 per share

- 2024-07: $202.66 per share

- 2024-08: $212.04 per share

- 2024-09: $207.60 per share

- 2024-10: $215.85 per share

- 2024-11: $228.22 per share

- 2024-12: $201.79 per share

- 2025-01: $220.26 per share

- 2025-02: $232.78 per share

- 2025-03: $231.51 per share

- 2025-04: $233.36 per share

- 2025-05: $240.97 per share

- 2025-06: $228.82 per share

- 2025-07: $229.16 per share

- 2025-08: $226.39 per share

- 2025-09: $220.83 per share

- 2025-10: $199.77 per share

- 2025-11: $217.87 per share

- 2025-12: $219.71 per share

- 2026-01: $222.24 per share

- 2026-02: $240.84 per share

- 2026-03: $229.79 per share

- 2026-04: $232.55 per share

- 2026-05: $211.46 per share

- 2026-06: $222.88 per share

- 2026-07: $226.55 per share

- 2026-08: $218.92 per share

- 2026-09: $203.92 per share

- 2026-10: $211.83 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $19.94 per share, central $22.69 per share, high $26.35 per share

- FY2017: low $32.17 per share, central $37.91 per share, high $44.11 per share

- FY2018: low $40.46 per share, central $48.14 per share, high $56.04 per share

- FY2019: low $54.53 per share, central $66.56 per share, high $76.43 per share

- FY2020: low $45.08 per share, central $54.01 per share, high $62.81 per share

- FY2021: low $55.84 per share, central $68.11 per share, high $79.40 per share

- FY2022: low $63.71 per share, central $79.30 per share, high $92.54 per share

- FY2023: low $66.02 per share, central $83.35 per share, high $97.31 per share

- FY2024: low $73.60 per share, central $91.84 per share, high $107.18 per share

- FY2025: low $86.98 per share, central $112.70 per share, high $131.77 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:38:54.305Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/823768/000110465926012049/wm-20251231x10k.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-09.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.