# Walmart (WMT.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/WMT

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:09.998Z. Financial observations: FY1997–FY2027.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at too high a price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $117.87 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $26.42 per share, central $33.06 per share, high $38.59 per share. Buy at or below the central value $33.06 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:09.998Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 5.0% at the stated quote. About 5.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.07×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.04×

- FY2019: 0.04×

- FY2020: 0.04×

- FY2021: 0.04×

- FY2022: 0.05×

- FY2023: 0.03×

- FY2024: 0.04×

- FY2025: 0.04×

- FY2026: 0.04×

- LTM to Jul 2026: 0.04×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 16.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 14.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.0 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 24.9%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 24.9%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 2.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 10.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 14.3%

- FY2019: 15.6%

- FY2020: 14.6%

- FY2021: 15.4%

- FY2022: 20.0%

- FY2023: 13.8%

- FY2024: 18.9%

- FY2025: 19.8%

- FY2026: 17.7%

- LTM to Jul 2026: 18.7%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.00×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $82B

- Net income, five-year total: $82B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 16.7%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 1.1%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 1.00×

- FY2026: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2017 to 2026 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 15.6% vs 18.9%

- Per-share earnings: 1.46 to 2.41 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.2%

- Market cap gain: $748B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $15B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -1.8%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2017

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2026

- Per-share value growth: 6.4%

- Per-share value change: $0.94

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.46

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.41

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.19

- Average buyback yield: 1.9%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $4.7B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $141B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 15.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 18.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: $1.46

- FY2018: $1.09

- FY2019: $0.75

- FY2020: $1.73

- FY2021: $1.58

- FY2022: $1.62

- FY2023: $1.42

- FY2024: $1.91

- FY2025: $2.41

- FY2026: $2.73

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -6.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.07×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.90×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.29×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: -9.1%

- FY2018: -9.0%

- FY2019: -9.6%

- FY2020: -4.4%

- FY2021: -8.9%

- FY2022: -4.3%

- FY2023: -7.2%

- FY2024: -8.0%

- FY2025: -6.5%

- FY2026: -6.9%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Gates](https://gigainvestors.com/GFT): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Russo](https://gigainvestors.com/GR): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 19.5% a year for ten years · "Walmart sharpening focus on ecommerce and growing profits faster than sales" (seekingalpha.com, Nov 2025) · sales +3.2%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:52.512Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 19.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-04-10: Walmart Reaffirms Q1 Outlook Amid Tariffs and Market Volatility ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walmart-reaffirms-q1-outlook-amid-152000764.html))

- 2025-09-01: Walmart Raises Sales Guidance: Will Margins Catch Up Next? ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walmart-raises-sales-guidance-margins-142800713.html))

- 2025-11-20: Walmart beats top-line and bottom-line estimates; raises FY26 outlook ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4524410-walmart-beats-top-line-and-bottom-line-estimates-raises-fy26-outlook?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-01-12: Walmart Stock Jumps on Google AI Partnership ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walmart-stock-jumps-google-ai-182828254.html))

- 2026-02-20: Walmart says automation of supply chain on track, gaining market share ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walmart-says-automation-supply-chain-132314263.html))

- 2026-05-23: WMT Q1 Deep Dive: Strong Sales Growth Overshadowed by Cautious Guidance and Margin Pressures ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/wmt-q1-deep-dive-strong-071655321.html))

### Sales · FY2026–2027

sales +3.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/104169/000010416926000055/wmt-20260131.htm; observed 2026-03-13.

- FY2018: $500B 

- FY2019: $514B 

- FY2020: $524B 

- FY2021: $559B 

- FY2022: $573B 

- FY2023: $611B 

- FY2024: $648B 

- FY2025: $681B 

- FY2026: $713B 

- FY2027: $736B 

### Gross margin · FY2027

gross margin 25.2%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/104169/000010416926000055/wmt-20260131.htm; observed 2026-03-13.

- FY2018: 25.4% 

- FY2019: 25.1% 

- FY2020: 24.7% 

- FY2021: 24.8% 

- FY2022: 25.1% 

- FY2023: 24.1% 

- FY2024: 24.4% 

- FY2025: 24.9% 

- FY2026: 24.9% 

- FY2027: 25.2% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in discount stores; annual sales are USD 713.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/104169/000010416926000055/wmt-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-13); FY2026: revenue 713163000000; grossProfit 177768000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); WMT.US: Walmart Inc. engages in the operation of retail and wholesale stores and clubs, ecommerce websites, and mobile applications worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club U.S. It operates supercenters, supermarkets, warehouse clubs, cash and carry stores, and discount stores under Walmart and Walmart Neighborhood Market brands; membership-only warehouse clubs; and ecommerce websites, such as walmart.com.mx, walmart.ca, flipkart.com, PhonePe and other sites. It offers grocery items, including dry grocery, snacks, dairy, meat, produce, deli and bakery, frozen foods, alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, as well as consumables, such as health and beauty aids, pet supplies, household chemicals, paper goods, and baby products; and fuel and other categories. In addition, it is involved in the provision of health and wellness products covering pharmacy, optical and hearing services, over-the-counter drugs, and protein and nutrition products; and home, hardlines, and seasonal items, including home improvement, outdoor living, gardening, furniture, apparel, jewelry, tools and power equipment, housewares, toys, and mattresses. Further, the company offers consumer electronics and accessories, software, video games, office supplies, appliances, and third-party gift cards. Additionally, it operates digital payment platforms; offers financial services and related products, including money transfers, bill payments, money orders, check cashing, prepaid access, co-branded credit cards, installment lending, and earned wage access; and markets lines of merchandise under private and licensed brands. The company was formerly known as Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. and changed its name to Walmart Inc. in February 2018. Walmart Inc. was founded in 1945 and is based in Bentonville, Arkansas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 24.4% to 24.9% during 2024–26; it earns 16.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 24.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 24.9%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/104169/000010416926000055/wmt-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-13); FY2026: grossProfit / revenue = 24.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); 10-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.14312513926527262],[2019,0.15576419356951085],[2020,0.14585189691687916],[2021,0.15422070529675322],[2022,0.1998173518960932],[2023,0.13754720389551267],[2024,0.18919136041082693],[2025,0.19846220934014375],[2026,0.17712402784025116],[2027,0.187390440997591]]; median 0.16644411070488102. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Can it raise prices

Kept about a 25% gross margin through 2022 cost inflation.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/104169/000010416926000055/wmt-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-13); Gross margin observations: [[2021,0.24829786587165184],[2022,0.25098733487675334],[2023,0.24140463839525986]]; range within 2 percentage points.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 56.8% of cash earnings on expansion; earns 16.7% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2017: growth capex 539000000; upkeep 10080000000; owner earnings 13643000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03950743971267317.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 10051000000; owner earnings 10340000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 10344000000; owner earnings 7004000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 10705000000; owner earnings 15163000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 10264000000; owner earnings 14398000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2022: growth capex 2448000000; upkeep 10658000000; owner earnings 13673000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.17903898193520076.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2023: growth capex 5912000000; upkeep 10945000000; owner earnings 11680000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5061643835616438.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2024: growth capex 8753000000; upkeep 11853000000; owner earnings 15511000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5643091999226355.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); FY2025: growth capex 10810000000; upkeep 12973000000; owner earnings 19436000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5561844000823215.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/104169/000010416926000055/wmt-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-13); FY2026: growth capex 12439000000; upkeep 14203000000; owner earnings 21893000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.56817247522039.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); Incremental return on capital 0.1674609997827603, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); Dividend observations: [[2017,6216000000],[2018,6124000000],[2019,6102000000],[2020,6048000000],[2021,6116000000],[2022,6152000000],[2023,6114000000],[2024,6140000000],[2025,6688000000],[2026,7507000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/104169/000010416926000055/wmt-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-13); FY2026: cash repurchases 8088000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 44.2% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); WMT.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 44.247 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Risks associated with our suppliers could materially adversely affect our financial performance." (SEC filing, Mar 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/104169/000010416926000055/wmt-20260131.htm (filed 2026-03-13); Risks associated with our suppliers could materially adversely affect our financial performance.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 19.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 7.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-13); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.2700044409451846. Price 117.87; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2016 owner earnings/share 1.3129209408351465 → FY2026 2.7291199202193965. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $23.34 per share

- 2016-11: $23.48 per share

- 2016-12: $23.04 per share

- 2017-01: $22.25 per share

- 2017-02: $23.64 per share

- 2017-03: $24.03 per share

- 2017-04: $25.06 per share

- 2017-05: $26.20 per share

- 2017-06: $25.23 per share

- 2017-07: $26.66 per share

- 2017-08: $26.02 per share

- 2017-09: $26.05 per share

- 2017-10: $29.10 per share

- 2017-11: $32.41 per share

- 2017-12: $32.92 per share

- 2018-01: $35.53 per share

- 2018-02: $30.00 per share

- 2018-03: $29.66 per share

- 2018-04: $29.49 per share

- 2018-05: $27.51 per share

- 2018-06: $28.55 per share

- 2018-07: $29.74 per share

- 2018-08: $31.95 per share

- 2018-09: $31.30 per share

- 2018-10: $33.43 per share

- 2018-11: $32.55 per share

- 2018-12: $31.05 per share

- 2019-01: $31.94 per share

- 2019-02: $33.00 per share

- 2019-03: $32.51 per share

- 2019-04: $34.28 per share

- 2019-05: $33.81 per share

- 2019-06: $36.83 per share

- 2019-07: $36.79 per share

- 2019-08: $38.09 per share

- 2019-09: $39.56 per share

- 2019-10: $39.09 per share

- 2019-11: $39.70 per share

- 2019-12: $39.61 per share

- 2020-01: $38.16 per share

- 2020-02: $35.89 per share

- 2020-03: $37.87 per share

- 2020-04: $40.52 per share

- 2020-05: $41.35 per share

- 2020-06: $39.93 per share

- 2020-07: $43.13 per share

- 2020-08: $46.28 per share

- 2020-09: $46.64 per share

- 2020-10: $46.25 per share

- 2020-11: $50.93 per share

- 2020-12: $48.05 per share

- 2021-01: $46.83 per share

- 2021-02: $43.31 per share

- 2021-03: $45.28 per share

- 2021-04: $46.64 per share

- 2021-05: $47.34 per share

- 2021-06: $47.01 per share

- 2021-07: $47.52 per share

- 2021-08: $49.37 per share

- 2021-09: $46.46 per share

- 2021-10: $49.81 per share

- 2021-11: $46.88 per share

- 2021-12: $48.23 per share

- 2022-01: $46.60 per share

- 2022-02: $45.05 per share

- 2022-03: $49.64 per share

- 2022-04: $51.00 per share

- 2022-05: $42.88 per share

- 2022-06: $40.53 per share

- 2022-07: $44.02 per share

- 2022-08: $44.18 per share

- 2022-09: $43.23 per share

- 2022-10: $47.44 per share

- 2022-11: $50.81 per share

- 2022-12: $47.26 per share

- 2023-01: $47.96 per share

- 2023-02: $47.38 per share

- 2023-03: $49.15 per share

- 2023-04: $50.32 per share

- 2023-05: $48.96 per share

- 2023-06: $52.39 per share

- 2023-07: $53.29 per share

- 2023-08: $54.20 per share

- 2023-09: $53.31 per share

- 2023-10: $54.47 per share

- 2023-11: $51.90 per share

- 2023-12: $52.55 per share

- 2024-01: $55.08 per share

- 2024-02: $58.61 per share

- 2024-03: $60.17 per share

- 2024-04: $59.35 per share

- 2024-05: $65.76 per share

- 2024-06: $67.71 per share

- 2024-07: $68.64 per share

- 2024-08: $77.23 per share

- 2024-09: $80.75 per share

- 2024-10: $81.95 per share

- 2024-11: $92.50 per share

- 2024-12: $90.35 per share

- 2025-01: $98.16 per share

- 2025-02: $98.61 per share

- 2025-03: $87.79 per share

- 2025-04: $97.25 per share

- 2025-05: $98.72 per share

- 2025-06: $97.78 per share

- 2025-07: $97.98 per share

- 2025-08: $96.98 per share

- 2025-09: $103.06 per share

- 2025-10: $101.18 per share

- 2025-11: $110.51 per share

- 2025-12: $111.41 per share

- 2026-01: $119.14 per share

- 2026-02: $127.95 per share

- 2026-03: $124.28 per share

- 2026-04: $131.93 per share

- 2026-05: $115.75 per share

- 2026-06: $113.26 per share

- 2026-07: $111.20 per share

- 2026-08: $104.87 per share

- 2026-09: $103.92 per share

- 2026-10: $112.28 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $16.96 per share, central $20.06 per share, high $23.34 per share

- FY2018: low $17.01 per share, central $19.35 per share, high $22.47 per share

- FY2019: low $16.73 per share, central $19.03 per share, high $22.10 per share

- FY2020: low $17.49 per share, central $19.91 per share, high $23.12 per share

- FY2021: low $19.19 per share, central $21.73 per share, high $25.12 per share

- FY2022: low $18.53 per share, central $21.48 per share, high $24.91 per share

- FY2023: low $19.45 per share, central $22.13 per share, high $25.70 per share

- FY2024: low $21.60 per share, central $25.49 per share, high $29.66 per share

- FY2025: low $21.38 per share, central $25.42 per share, high $29.59 per share

- FY2026: low $23.69 per share, central $29.65 per share, high $34.60 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Historical value ranges retain the original capex calculation; the current filing judgement is not backfilled into historical valuations

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:38:55.550Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/104169/000010416926000055/wmt-20260131.htm); period 2026-01-31, filed 2026-03-13.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.