# Willis Towers Watson (WTW.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/WTW

Analysis as of: 2026-10-01T09:07:21.670Z. Financial observations: FY2008–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed. Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $310.36 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $191.17 per share, central $242.15 per share, high $278.30 per share. Buy at or below the central value $242.15 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-01T09:07:21.670Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.3% at the stated quote. About 8.3% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.3% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.52×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.04×

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.10×

- FY2019: 0.13×

- FY2020: 0.10×

- FY2021: 0.25×

- FY2022: 0.13×

- FY2023: 0.15×

- FY2024: 0.06×

- FY2025: 0.23×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 16.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 12.8%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 0.0%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 8.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 16.3%

- FY2017: 17.0%

- FY2018: 16.7%

- FY2019: 15.0%

- FY2020: 12.7%

- FY2021: 43.4%

- FY2022: 24.6%

- FY2023: 29.6%

- FY2024: 12.8%

- FY2025: 66.6%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.78×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $6.1B

- Net income, five-year total: $7.8B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 96.8%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -9.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 16.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.46×

- FY2022: 1.26×

- FY2023: 1.13×

- FY2024: 0.08×

- FY2025: 1.02×

### management: pass

- $1 retained earnings test: 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 16.7% vs 29.6%

- Market cap gain: $16B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$1.7B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 3.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -5.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 11.5%

- Per-share value change: $5.78

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $4.18

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $9.95

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.55

- Average buyback yield: 4.3%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $2.2B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $12B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 16.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 29.6%

### accounting: pass

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- Sloan accruals: -0.6%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.11×

- Restructuring years, last five: 4

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 8.6%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.11×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.26×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -1.7%

- FY2017: -0.9%

- FY2018: -1.8%

- FY2019: -0.1%

- FY2020: -2.0%

- FY2021: 6.2%

- FY2022: 0.6%

- FY2023: -1.0%

- FY2024: -5.8%

- FY2025: -0.6%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Abrams](https://gigainvestors.com/abc): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.9% a year for ten years · "Willis Towers Watson beats Q2 earnings expectations on strong organic growth" (investing.com, Jul 2025) · sales -2.3%

Story as of 2026-10-03T17:10:00Z; price observation 2026-10-02.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.9% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-31: Willis Towers Watson beats Q2 earnings expectations on strong organic growth ([investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/willis-towers-watson-beats-q2-earnings-expectations-on-strong-organic-growth-93CH-4162759))

- 2026-07-30: WTW Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Revenue Growth and Margin Gains ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/wtw-q2-earnings-beat-estimates-161600598.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -2.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1140536/000119312526069307/wtw-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2016: $7.9B 

- FY2017: $8.2B 

- FY2018: $8.4B 

- FY2019: $8.3B 

- FY2020: $8.6B 

- FY2021: $8.8B 

- FY2022: $8.7B 

- FY2023: $9.3B 

- FY2024: $9.7B 

- FY2025: $9.5B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 42.9%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1140536/000119312526069307/wtw-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25.

- FY2022: 43.6% 

- FY2023: 44.5% 

- FY2024: 45.5% 

- FY2025: 42.9% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-02T06:52:09.009Z.

### How it makes money

Annual sales are USD 9.7 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1140536/000119312526069307/wtw-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 9708000000; grossProfit 4083000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-02); WTW.US: Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company operates as an advisory, broking, and solutions company worldwide. The company operates through two segments: Health, Wealth & Career and Risk & Broking. It offers strategy and design consulting, plan management service and support, broking and administration services for health, wellbeing, and other group benefit programs, including medical, dental, disability, life, voluntary benefits, and other coverages; actuarial support, plan design, and administrative services for pension and retirement savings plans; retirement consulting services and solutions; and integrated solutions that consists of investment discretionary management, pension administration, core actuarial, and communication and change management assistance services. The company also provides advice, data, software, and products to address clients' total rewards and talent issues; and risk advice, insurance brokerage, and consulting services in the areas of property and casualty, affinity, risk and analytics, aerospace, construction, global markets direct and facultative, financial, executive and professional risks, credit risk solutions, crisis management, surety, marine, and natural resources. In addition, it offers software and technology, risk and capital management, products and product pricing, financial and regulatory reporting, financial and capital modeling, M&A, outsourcing, and business management services. The company was formerly known as Willis Group Holdings Public Limited Company and changed its name to Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company in January 2016. Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company was founded in 1828 and is based in London, the United Kingdom.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 42.9% to 45.5% during 2023–25; it earns 16.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 44.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 45.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1140536/000119312526069307/wtw-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 42.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.16269284712482468],[2017,0.17046580773042616],[2018,0.16667780858454037],[2019,0.14950949105896333],[2020,0.12709780168441606],[2021,0.4341612875613723],[2022,0.24613069242225252],[2023,0.29595930078104243],[2024,0.12816037735849056],[2025,0.6658048329404225]]; median 0.16857180815748327. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 1.6 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 307000000; owner earnings 759000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 375000000; owner earnings 959000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 322000000; owner earnings 1066000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 305000000; owner earnings 1394000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 286000000; owner earnings 1390000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 201000000; owner earnings 4570000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 204000000; owner earnings 1273000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 242000000; owner earnings 1298000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1140536/000119312526069307/wtw-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 229000000; owner earnings 1641000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2016,199000000],[2017,277000000],[2018,306000000],[2019,329000000],[2020,346000000],[2021,374000000],[2022,369000000],[2023,352000000],[2024,354000000],[2025,358000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1140536/000119312526069307/wtw-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 1650000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-02); WTW.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.268 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-02.

### What could break it

"Our outstanding debt could adversely affect our cash flows and financial flexibility" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1140536/000119312526069307/wtw-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); Our outstanding debt could adversely affect our cash flows and financial flexibility

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 7.1% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 42.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.08863922252689982. Price 291.6; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.4927536231884058 → FY2025 16.575757575757574. Closing-price date 2026-10-01.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $125.90 per share

- 2016-11: $124.37 per share

- 2016-12: $122.28 per share

- 2017-01: $125.13 per share

- 2017-02: $128.43 per share

- 2017-03: $130.89 per share

- 2017-04: $132.62 per share

- 2017-05: $146.63 per share

- 2017-06: $145.46 per share

- 2017-07: $148.88 per share

- 2017-08: $148.47 per share

- 2017-09: $154.23 per share

- 2017-10: $161.08 per share

- 2017-11: $160.80 per share

- 2017-12: $150.69 per share

- 2018-01: $160.47 per share

- 2018-02: $157.90 per share

- 2018-03: $152.19 per share

- 2018-04: $148.51 per share

- 2018-05: $151.15 per share

- 2018-06: $151.60 per share

- 2018-07: $159.42 per share

- 2018-08: $147.27 per share

- 2018-09: $140.94 per share

- 2018-10: $143.16 per share

- 2018-11: $159.45 per share

- 2018-12: $151.86 per share

- 2019-01: $162.79 per share

- 2019-02: $172.02 per share

- 2019-03: $175.65 per share

- 2019-04: $184.34 per share

- 2019-05: $175.50 per share

- 2019-06: $191.54 per share

- 2019-07: $195.22 per share

- 2019-08: $197.97 per share

- 2019-09: $192.97 per share

- 2019-10: $186.90 per share

- 2019-11: $196.44 per share

- 2019-12: $201.94 per share

- 2020-01: $211.29 per share

- 2020-02: $189.25 per share

- 2020-03: $169.85 per share

- 2020-04: $178.29 per share

- 2020-05: $202.90 per share

- 2020-06: $196.95 per share

- 2020-07: $210.01 per share

- 2020-08: $205.53 per share

- 2020-09: $208.82 per share

- 2020-10: $182.48 per share

- 2020-11: $208.19 per share

- 2020-12: $210.68 per share

- 2021-01: $202.94 per share

- 2021-02: $220.64 per share

- 2021-03: $228.88 per share

- 2021-04: $258.86 per share

- 2021-05: $261.36 per share

- 2021-06: $230.02 per share

- 2021-07: $206.08 per share

- 2021-08: $220.72 per share

- 2021-09: $232.46 per share

- 2021-10: $242.28 per share

- 2021-11: $225.84 per share

- 2021-12: $237.49 per share

- 2022-01: $233.96 per share

- 2022-02: $222.30 per share

- 2022-03: $236.22 per share

- 2022-04: $214.86 per share

- 2022-05: $211.07 per share

- 2022-06: $197.39 per share

- 2022-07: $206.94 per share

- 2022-08: $206.83 per share

- 2022-09: $200.94 per share

- 2022-10: $218.21 per share

- 2022-11: $246.16 per share

- 2022-12: $244.58 per share

- 2023-01: $254.19 per share

- 2023-02: $234.36 per share

- 2023-03: $232.38 per share

- 2023-04: $231.60 per share

- 2023-05: $218.85 per share

- 2023-06: $235.50 per share

- 2023-07: $211.33 per share

- 2023-08: $206.76 per share

- 2023-09: $208.96 per share

- 2023-10: $235.89 per share

- 2023-11: $246.30 per share

- 2023-12: $241.20 per share

- 2024-01: $246.30 per share

- 2024-02: $272.61 per share

- 2024-03: $275.00 per share

- 2024-04: $251.14 per share

- 2024-05: $255.29 per share

- 2024-06: $262.14 per share

- 2024-07: $282.28 per share

- 2024-08: $292.11 per share

- 2024-09: $294.53 per share

- 2024-10: $302.19 per share

- 2024-11: $322.00 per share

- 2024-12: $313.24 per share

- 2025-01: $329.57 per share

- 2025-02: $339.65 per share

- 2025-03: $337.95 per share

- 2025-04: $307.80 per share

- 2025-05: $316.55 per share

- 2025-06: $306.50 per share

- 2025-07: $315.81 per share

- 2025-08: $326.79 per share

- 2025-09: $345.45 per share

- 2025-10: $313.10 per share

- 2025-11: $321.00 per share

- 2025-12: $328.60 per share

- 2026-01: $317.47 per share

- 2026-02: $305.17 per share

- 2026-03: $290.70 per share

- 2026-04: $256.20 per share

- 2026-05: $249.67 per share

- 2026-06: $261.37 per share

- 2026-07: $335.92 per share

- 2026-08: $338.55 per share

- 2026-09: $288.23 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $29.87 per share, central $33.28 per share, high $37.82 per share

- FY2017: low $39.08 per share, central $43.59 per share, high $49.59 per share

- FY2018: low $72.38 per share, central $81.46 per share, high $93.54 per share

- FY2019: low $90.26 per share, central $126.55 per share, high $147.69 per share

- FY2020: low $119.68 per share, central $164.81 per share, high $191.08 per share

- FY2021: low $163.88 per share, central $219.79 per share, high $252.34 per share

- FY2022: low $164.23 per share, central $230.45 per share, high $269.01 per share

- FY2023: low $150.25 per share, central $190.33 per share, high $220.51 per share

- FY2025: low $191.17 per share, central $242.15 per share, high $278.30 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1140536/000119312526069307/wtw-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-25.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.