# Weyerhaeuser (WY.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/WY

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:15.640Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $19.38 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $9.53 per share, central $10.77 per share, high $12.42 per share. Buy at or below the central value $10.77 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:15.640Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 6.7% at the stated quote. About 6.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 0.47×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.13×

- FY2017: 0.16×

- FY2018: 0.19×

- FY2019: 0.10×

- FY2020: 0.23×

- FY2021: 0.36×

- FY2022: 0.30×

- FY2023: 0.15×

- FY2024: 0.10×

- FY2025: 0.11×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 16.1pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 6.9%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 4.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 16.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 23.6%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 7.5%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.2%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 4.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 4.3%

- FY2017: 6.3%

- FY2018: 8.4%

- FY2019: 3.6%

- FY2020: 10.1%

- FY2021: 20.4%

- FY2022: 17.6%

- FY2023: 7.5%

- FY2024: 4.5%

- FY2025: 5.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.90×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $5.5B

- Net income, five-year total: $6.0B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 18.2%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 8.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 0.85×

- FY2023: 0.79×

- FY2024: 0.58×

- FY2025: 1.11×

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.3% vs 5.1%

- Per-share earnings: 0.97 to 0.54 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 3.4%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- Market cap gain: -$5.5B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $7.0M

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 3.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.7%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: -7.0%

- Per-share value change: -$0.43

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.97

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $0.54

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.33

- Average buyback yield: 2.0%

- Buyback history: 8 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $177M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $9.1B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 6.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 5.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.42

- FY2017: $0.77

- FY2018: $0.99

- FY2019: -$0.10

- FY2020: $1.07

- FY2021: $3.47

- FY2022: $2.53

- FY2023: $1.15

- FY2024: $0.54

- FY2025: $0.45

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -1.4%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.03×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 7.7%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.73×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.02×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 1.5%

- FY2017: -3.4%

- FY2018: -2.1%

- FY2019: -6.4%

- FY2020: -4.5%

- FY2021: -3.1%

- FY2022: -5.5%

- FY2023: -3.5%

- FY2024: -3.7%

- FY2025: -1.4%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Martin Whitman](https://gigainvestors.com/TA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 53% since Apr 2022 · "WY Q2 Beat Shows a Lumber Rebound but Higher OSB Costs Cloud Outlook" (finance.yahoo.com, Aug 2026) · sales -3.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:53.931Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 8.6% a year for ten years

- 2025-06-27: Weyerhaeuser downwardly revises Q2 guidance for Wood Products unit ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4463266-weyerhaeuser-downwardly-revises-q2-guidance-for-wood-products-unit?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2025-07-24: Weyerhaeuser reports 50% drop in second-quarter profit on weak lumber demand ([ca.finance.yahoo.com](https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/weyerhaeuser-reports-50-drop-second-223855805.html))

- 2026-01-30: Weyerhaeuser Q4 Loss Narrower Than Estimates, Revenues Miss, Stock Down ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/weyerhaeuser-q4-loss-narrower-estimates-171500973.html))

- 2026-08-07: WY Q2 Beat Shows a Lumber Rebound but Higher OSB Costs Cloud Outlook ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/wy-q2-beat-shows-lumber-161600846.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -3.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/106535/000119312526051422/wy-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2016: $6.4B 

- FY2017: $7.2B 

- FY2018: $7.5B 

- FY2019: $6.6B 

- FY2020: $7.5B 

- FY2021: $10B 

- FY2022: $10B 

- FY2023: $7.7B 

- FY2024: $7.1B 

- FY2025: $6.9B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 7.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/106535/000119312526051422/wy-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-13.

- FY2016: 21.8% 

- FY2017: 26.4% 

- FY2018: 25.2% 

- FY2019: 17.4% 

- FY2020: 27.7% 

- FY2021: 40.2% 

- FY2022: 35.5% 

- FY2023: 21.9% 

- FY2024: 18.4% 

- FY2025: 7.5% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in property rentals; annual sales are USD 6.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/106535/000119312526051422/wy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: revenue 6905000000; grossProfit 516000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 7.5% to 21.9% during 2023–25; it earns 6.9% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 21.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 18.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/106535/000119312526051422/wy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 7.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.04342927417999603],[2017,0.06323651136570621],[2018,0.08413102374667034],[2019,0.03559593023255814],[2020,0.10103016115810734],[2021,0.2044167821268125],[2022,0.1763746487028754],[2023,0.07499698520943751],[2024,0.04492075525690082],[2025,0.05091592951173644]]; median 0.06911674828757186. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 160 million of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 520000000; owner earnings 1072000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 419000000; owner earnings 684000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 427000000; owner earnings 807000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 384000000; owner earnings 50000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2020: growth capex 234000000; upkeep 472000000; owner earnings 797000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.2936010037641154.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2021: growth capex 113000000; upkeep 477000000; owner earnings 2607000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.04334484081319524.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 763000000; owner earnings 1597000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 680000000; owner earnings 659000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 667000000; owner earnings 231000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/106535/000119312526051422/wy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 474000000; owner earnings 359000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Dividend observations: [[2016,954000000],[2017,941000000],[2018,995000000],[2019,1013000000],[2020,381000000],[2021,884000000],[2022,1617000000],[2023,1216000000],[2024,684000000],[2025,606000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/106535/000119312526051422/wy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); FY2025: cash repurchases 160000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); WY.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.33 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Changes in global or regional climate conditions could significantly harm our timberland assets" (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/106535/000119312526051422/wy-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-13); Changes in global or regional climate conditions could significantly harm our timberland assets

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 8.6% yearly over ten years; actual decline was 6.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-13); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.11014844340452046. Price 19.38; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.9737922858715441 → FY2025 0.4961530860307338. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $29.93 per share

- 2016-11: $30.83 per share

- 2016-12: $30.09 per share

- 2017-01: $31.33 per share

- 2017-02: $33.72 per share

- 2017-03: $33.98 per share

- 2017-04: $33.87 per share

- 2017-05: $32.96 per share

- 2017-06: $33.50 per share

- 2017-07: $33.02 per share

- 2017-08: $32.61 per share

- 2017-09: $34.03 per share

- 2017-10: $35.91 per share

- 2017-11: $35.38 per share

- 2017-12: $35.26 per share

- 2018-01: $37.54 per share

- 2018-02: $35.03 per share

- 2018-03: $35.00 per share

- 2018-04: $36.78 per share

- 2018-05: $37.33 per share

- 2018-06: $36.46 per share

- 2018-07: $34.18 per share

- 2018-08: $34.71 per share

- 2018-09: $32.27 per share

- 2018-10: $26.63 per share

- 2018-11: $26.41 per share

- 2018-12: $21.86 per share

- 2019-01: $26.24 per share

- 2019-02: $24.89 per share

- 2019-03: $26.34 per share

- 2019-04: $26.80 per share

- 2019-05: $22.80 per share

- 2019-06: $26.34 per share

- 2019-07: $25.41 per share

- 2019-08: $26.31 per share

- 2019-09: $27.70 per share

- 2019-10: $29.21 per share

- 2019-11: $29.51 per share

- 2019-12: $30.20 per share

- 2020-01: $28.95 per share

- 2020-02: $25.98 per share

- 2020-03: $16.95 per share

- 2020-04: $21.87 per share

- 2020-05: $20.19 per share

- 2020-06: $22.46 per share

- 2020-07: $27.81 per share

- 2020-08: $30.31 per share

- 2020-09: $28.52 per share

- 2020-10: $27.29 per share

- 2020-11: $29.04 per share

- 2020-12: $33.53 per share

- 2021-01: $31.19 per share

- 2021-02: $33.87 per share

- 2021-03: $35.60 per share

- 2021-04: $38.77 per share

- 2021-05: $37.96 per share

- 2021-06: $34.42 per share

- 2021-07: $33.73 per share

- 2021-08: $36.00 per share

- 2021-09: $35.57 per share

- 2021-10: $35.72 per share

- 2021-11: $37.61 per share

- 2021-12: $41.18 per share

- 2022-01: $40.43 per share

- 2022-02: $38.88 per share

- 2022-03: $37.90 per share

- 2022-04: $41.22 per share

- 2022-05: $39.52 per share

- 2022-06: $33.12 per share

- 2022-07: $36.32 per share

- 2022-08: $34.16 per share

- 2022-09: $28.56 per share

- 2022-10: $30.93 per share

- 2022-11: $32.71 per share

- 2022-12: $31.00 per share

- 2023-01: $34.43 per share

- 2023-02: $31.25 per share

- 2023-03: $30.13 per share

- 2023-04: $29.91 per share

- 2023-05: $28.66 per share

- 2023-06: $33.51 per share

- 2023-07: $34.06 per share

- 2023-08: $32.75 per share

- 2023-09: $30.66 per share

- 2023-10: $28.69 per share

- 2023-11: $31.35 per share

- 2023-12: $34.77 per share

- 2024-01: $32.77 per share

- 2024-02: $34.38 per share

- 2024-03: $35.91 per share

- 2024-04: $30.17 per share

- 2024-05: $30.03 per share

- 2024-06: $28.39 per share

- 2024-07: $31.76 per share

- 2024-08: $30.49 per share

- 2024-09: $33.86 per share

- 2024-10: $31.16 per share

- 2024-11: $32.26 per share

- 2024-12: $28.15 per share

- 2025-01: $30.62 per share

- 2025-02: $30.10 per share

- 2025-03: $29.28 per share

- 2025-04: $25.91 per share

- 2025-05: $25.91 per share

- 2025-06: $25.69 per share

- 2025-07: $25.05 per share

- 2025-08: $25.87 per share

- 2025-09: $24.79 per share

- 2025-10: $23.00 per share

- 2025-11: $22.21 per share

- 2025-12: $23.69 per share

- 2026-01: $25.78 per share

- 2026-02: $24.53 per share

- 2026-03: $24.43 per share

- 2026-04: $24.52 per share

- 2026-05: $24.51 per share

- 2026-06: $23.94 per share

- 2026-07: $25.03 per share

- 2026-08: $23.37 per share

- 2026-09: $19.05 per share

- 2026-10: $19.38 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $11.04 per share, central $12.45 per share, high $14.34 per share

- FY2017: low $11.99 per share, central $13.52 per share, high $15.56 per share

- FY2018: low $11.90 per share, central $13.51 per share, high $15.64 per share

- FY2019: low $9.27 per share, central $10.55 per share, high $12.25 per share

- FY2020: low $12.11 per share, central $13.71 per share, high $15.85 per share

- FY2021: low $17.94 per share, central $20.11 per share, high $22.99 per share

- FY2022: low $18.03 per share, central $20.26 per share, high $23.23 per share

- FY2023: low $13.50 per share, central $15.17 per share, high $17.40 per share

- FY2024: low $12.05 per share, central $13.60 per share, high $15.68 per share

- FY2025: low $9.41 per share, central $10.64 per share, high $12.29 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/106535/000119312526051422/wy-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-13.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.