# Exagen (XGN.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/XGN

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:16.636Z. Financial observations: FY2019–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $8.56 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 1 revenue decline in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 7 years

- Years with declining revenue: 1

- Years with a net loss: 7

- Operating margin variation: 0.61×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -0.23×

- FY2020: -0.36×

- FY2021: -0.50×

- FY2022: -1.01×

- FY2023: -0.43×

- FY2024: -0.25×

- FY2025: -0.21×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: -191.3%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -236.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 57.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 58.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 1.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -150.6%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -176.5%

- FY2020: -205.0%

- FY2021: -236.1%

- FY2022: -238.2%

- FY2023: -191.3%

- FY2024: -100.6%

- FY2025: -101.6%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- incremental invested capital return below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$133M

- Net income, five-year total: -$133M

- Return on incremental invested capital: -342.0%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -1.3 pp

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -$28M

- FY2022: -$50M

- FY2023: -$22M

- FY2024: -$14M

- FY2025: -$18M

### management: fail

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -205.0% vs -101.6%

- Per-share earnings: -1.32 to -0.93 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 11.3%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 11.3%

- Per-share value change: $0.40

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$1.32

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$0.93

- Average buyback yield: 0.6%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- ROIC, first three-year median: -205.0%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -101.6%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -$0.96

- FY2020: -$1.32

- FY2021: -$1.68

- FY2022: -$2.77

- FY2023: -$1.34

- FY2024: -$0.83

- FY2025: -$0.93

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -10.9%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.16×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2019: -2.6%

- FY2020: -3.3%

- FY2021: -5.3%

- FY2022: -17.7%

- FY2023: -16.2%

- FY2024: -4.1%

- FY2025: -10.9%

## Holders

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 27% since Oct 2025 · sales +19.7%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:54.137Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2026-05-12: Exagen reaffirms $70M-$73M 2026 revenue guidance as it targets $600-$650 ASP over time ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4590986-exagen-reaffirms-70m-73m-2026-revenue-guidance-as-it-targets-600-650-asp-over-time?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

- 2026-08-04: Exagen Reports Record Second-Quarter 2026 Revenue and Raises Full-Year Guidance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/healthcare/articles/exagen-reports-record-second-quarter-152837213.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +19.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274737/000127473726000009/exdx-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-10.

- FY2019: $40M 

- FY2020: $42M 

- FY2021: $48M 

- FY2022: $46M 

- FY2023: $53M 

- FY2024: $56M 

- FY2025: $67M 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 58.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274737/000127473726000009/exdx-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-10.

- FY2019: 53.4% 

- FY2020: 60.6% 

- FY2021: 57.4% 

- FY2022: 46.9% 

- FY2023: 56.1% 

- FY2024: 59.5% 

- FY2025: 58.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in diagnostics & research; annual sales are USD 66.6 million.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274737/000127473726000009/exdx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: revenue 66575000; grossProfit 38799000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); XGN.US: Exagen Inc. designs, develops, and commercializes various testing products under the AVISE brand in the United States. The company enables healthcare providers to care for patients through the diagnosis, prognosis, and monitoring of complex rheumatic, and autoimmune and autoimmune-related diseases, including systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The company's lead testing product is AVISE CTD that enables differential diagnosis for patients presenting with symptoms indicative of various connective tissue diseases (CTDs) and other related diseases with overlapping symptoms. The company offers AVISE Lupus platform, a cornerstone of the SLE assessment that begins by quantifying the level of CB-CAPs biomarkers (EC4d and BC4d) in the patient's blood; and AVISE APS that aids in the diagnosis and management of APS. In addition, it provides AVISE Vasculitis AAV, which utilizes a testing panel of individual analytes to provide physicians with results in the assessment and monitoring of anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody associated vasculitis; AVISE Anti-Histone, a test for autoantibodies to histone proteins; AVISE SLE Prognostic, a panel of autoantibodies for assessing the potential for complications affecting the kidney, brain, and cardiovascular system; and AVISE Anti-CarP, a biomarker-driven RA prognostic test. Further, the company offers AVISE SLE Monitor, a blood test that employs CB-CAPs technology; AVISE MTX, a patented and validated blood test; and AVISE HCQ, a blood test to monitor levels of hydroxychloroquine. It has a research collaboration and license agreement with Allegheny Health Network (AHN) Research Institute to develop T-Cell biomarkers. The company was formerly known as Exagen Diagnostics, Inc. and changed its name to Exagen Inc. in January 2019. Exagen Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Vista, California.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 56.1% to 59.5% during 2023–25.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 56.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 59.5%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274737/000127473726000009/exdx-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-10); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 58.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); 7-year return on capital observations [[2019,-1.76549146839702],[2020,-2.049923103212577],[2021,-2.36097479200298],[2022,-2.3824682383759006],[2023,-1.912768235793045],[2024,-1.0058300653594772],[2025,-1.016488340192044]]; median -1.912768235793045. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 4 of 7 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); Dividend observations: [[2019,6741000],[2020,142000],[2021,390000],[2022,0],[2023,9935000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 24.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-05); XGN.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 24.331 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-05.

### What the price says

The price is 2.8 times annual sales; cash earnings are negative.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-10); Closing price 8.56 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 3.088145625954246; price multiple 2.7718900067592944. FY2025 cash earnings/share -0.8569343190969395. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2019-09: $15.49 per share

- 2019-10: $15.06 per share

- 2019-11: $17.84 per share

- 2019-12: $25.40 per share

- 2020-01: $20.65 per share

- 2020-02: $17.08 per share

- 2020-03: $15.94 per share

- 2020-04: $15.60 per share

- 2020-05: $11.59 per share

- 2020-06: $12.41 per share

- 2020-07: $12.45 per share

- 2020-08: $14.42 per share

- 2020-09: $10.84 per share

- 2020-10: $14.26 per share

- 2020-11: $14.86 per share

- 2020-12: $13.20 per share

- 2021-01: $15.70 per share

- 2021-02: $18.29 per share

- 2021-03: $17.50 per share

- 2021-04: $16.86 per share

- 2021-05: $14.25 per share

- 2021-06: $14.99 per share

- 2021-07: $11.92 per share

- 2021-08: $14.10 per share

- 2021-09: $13.60 per share

- 2021-10: $11.62 per share

- 2021-11: $10.28 per share

- 2021-12: $11.63 per share

- 2022-01: $9.83 per share

- 2022-02: $7.60 per share

- 2022-03: $8.03 per share

- 2022-04: $6.10 per share

- 2022-05: $5.00 per share

- 2022-06: $5.74 per share

- 2022-07: $7.39 per share

- 2022-08: $4.53 per share

- 2022-09: $2.71 per share

- 2022-10: $2.45 per share

- 2022-11: $2.70 per share

- 2022-12: $2.40 per share

- 2023-01: $2.84 per share

- 2023-02: $2.55 per share

- 2023-03: $2.43 per share

- 2023-04: $2.54 per share

- 2023-05: $3.01 per share

- 2023-06: $2.90 per share

- 2023-07: $2.46 per share

- 2023-08: $2.52 per share

- 2023-09: $2.42 per share

- 2023-10: $1.71 per share

- 2023-11: $1.84 per share

- 2023-12: $1.99 per share

- 2024-01: $2.15 per share

- 2024-02: $2.25 per share

- 2024-03: $1.59 per share

- 2024-04: $1.39 per share

- 2024-05: $1.95 per share

- 2024-06: $1.82 per share

- 2024-07: $1.95 per share

- 2024-08: $2.98 per share

- 2024-09: $3.09 per share

- 2024-10: $2.43 per share

- 2024-11: $3.97 per share

- 2024-12: $4.10 per share

- 2025-01: $4.00 per share

- 2025-02: $3.46 per share

- 2025-03: $3.59 per share

- 2025-04: $6.23 per share

- 2025-05: $6.95 per share

- 2025-06: $6.98 per share

- 2025-07: $8.40 per share

- 2025-08: $9.86 per share

- 2025-09: $10.99 per share

- 2025-10: $11.67 per share

- 2025-11: $7.90 per share

- 2025-12: $6.08 per share

- 2026-01: $3.68 per share

- 2026-02: $3.62 per share

- 2026-03: $3.00 per share

- 2026-04: $2.90 per share

- 2026-05: $4.98 per share

- 2026-06: $4.65 per share

- 2026-07: $4.53 per share

- 2026-08: $7.34 per share

- 2026-09: $8.13 per share

- 2026-10: $8.56 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1274737/000127473726000009/exdx-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-10.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.