# Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/XOM

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:17.115Z. Financial observations: FY1996–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $174.68 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $100.42 per share, central $114.15 per share, high $132.43 per share. Buy at or below the central value $114.15 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:17.115Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 7.5% at the stated quote. About 7.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 5 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 5

- Years with a net loss: 1

- Operating margin variation: 1.35×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.01×

- FY2017: 0.06×

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.05×

- FY2020: -0.16×

- FY2021: 0.09×

- FY2022: 0.16×

- FY2023: 0.13×

- FY2024: 0.12×

- FY2025: 0.10×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.6%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 1.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 1.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 23.0%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 21.7%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 7.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 9.4%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 1.3%

- FY2017: 6.1%

- FY2018: 6.8%

- FY2019: 4.0%

- FY2020: -10.6%

- FY2021: 8.7%

- FY2022: 22.9%

- FY2023: 14.6%

- FY2024: 10.1%

- FY2025: 8.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.06×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $188B

- Net income, five-year total: $177B

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.3 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -1.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 7.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.37×

- FY2022: 1.10×

- FY2023: 0.96×

- FY2024: 1.00×

- FY2025: 0.92×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 6.1% vs 10.1%

- Per-share earnings: 3.89 to 7.55 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- Market cap gain: $129B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $75B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -0.2%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 8.6%

- Per-share value change: $3.66

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $3.89

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $7.55

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.27

- Average buyback yield: 1.7%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $31B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $218B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 6.1%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 10.1%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.91

- FY2017: $4.62

- FY2018: $4.90

- FY2019: $3.35

- FY2020: -$5.25

- FY2021: $5.39

- FY2022: $13.47

- FY2023: $8.98

- FY2024: $7.55

- FY2025: $6.81

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.07×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.80×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.08×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.3%

- FY2017: -3.0%

- FY2018: -4.4%

- FY2019: -4.2%

- FY2020: -11.2%

- FY2021: -7.4%

- FY2022: -5.7%

- FY2023: -5.1%

- FY2024: -4.7%

- FY2025: -5.2%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Matthew McLennan](https://gigainvestors.com/FE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Russo](https://gigainvestors.com/GR): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Graham Kahn](https://gigainvestors.com/KB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [David Katz](https://gigainvestors.com/MAVFX): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Thomas Gayner](https://gigainvestors.com/MKL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Andrew Adams](https://gigainvestors.com/MPF): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Ron Muhlenkamp](https://gigainvestors.com/MUHL): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Christopher Bloomstran](https://gigainvestors.com/SA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Arnold Van Den Berg](https://gigainvestors.com/VAN): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.3% a year for ten years · "ExxonMobil Lifts 2030 Outlook With Higher Earnings and Cash Flow" (finance.yahoo.com, Dec 2025) · sales -4.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:54.227Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 6.3% a year for ten years

- 2025-12-12: ExxonMobil Hikes 2030 Outlook, Lifts Earnings and Cash Flow Growth ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exxonmobil-hikes-2030-outlook-lifts-134600049.html))

- 2026-01-30: Exxon Mobil Q4 Earnings Beat Estimates on Higher Production ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exxon-mobil-q4-earnings-beat-175500433.html))

- 2026-02-07: ExxonMobil Grows South America Footprint With Guyana Vessel And Colombia Win ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/exxonmobil-grows-south-america-footprint-150602016.html))

- 2026-03-23: ExxonMobil Advances Guyana Growth With Continued FPSO Additions ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/energy/articles/exxonmobil-advances-guyana-growth-continued-193300958.html))

- 2026-04-08: Exxon Warns of 6% Production Hit From War in First Quarter ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/70b3fd80-7f80-3776-b6e6-d387805ef5d0/exxon-warns-of-6%25-production.html))

- 2026-07-31: ExxonMobil Q2 2026 earnings miss on refinery maintenance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/exxonmobil-q2-2026-earnings-miss-111830231.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -4.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/34088/000003408826000045/xom-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2016: $201B 

- FY2017: $237B 

- FY2018: $279B 

- FY2019: $256B 

- FY2020: $179B 

- FY2021: $277B 

- FY2022: $399B 

- FY2023: $335B 

- FY2024: $339B 

- FY2025: $324B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 21.7%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/34088/000003408826000045/xom-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-18.

- FY2016: 21.8% 

- FY2017: 23.8% 

- FY2018: 24.2% 

- FY2019: 21.9% 

- FY2020: 4.6% 

- FY2021: 23.5% 

- FY2022: 25.9% 

- FY2023: 25.1% 

- FY2024: 22.6% 

- FY2025: 21.7% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in oil & gas integrated; annual sales are USD 323.9 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/34088/000003408826000045/xom-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: revenue 323905000000; grossProfit 70233000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); XOM.US: ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation engages in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas in the United States, Canada, and internationally. The company operates through Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, and Specialty Products segments. Its Upstream segment explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas. The Energy Products segment offers fuels, aromatics, and catalysts, as well as licensing services. Its Chemical Products segment manufactures and sells olefins, polyolefins, and intermediates. The Specialty Products segment offers finished lubricants, basestocks, waxes, synthetics, elastomers, and resins. It is also involved in the manufacture, trade, transport, and sale of crude oil, natural gas, petroleum products, petrochemicals, and other specialty products; and pursuit of lower-emission and business opportunities, including carbon capture and storage, hydrogen, lower-emission fuels, Proxxima resin systems, carbon materials, low-carbon data center, and lithium. In addition, the company offers aviation fuel. It sells its products under the Exxon, Esso, and Mobil brands. The company was formerly known as Exxon Mobil Corporation and changed its name to ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation in July 2026. ExxonMobil Holdings Corporation was founded in 1870 and is headquartered in Spring, Texas.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 21.7% to 25.1% during 2023–25; it earns 7.6% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 25.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 22.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/34088/000003408826000045/xom-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 21.7%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.01342343651601027],[2017,0.06091771105635076],[2018,0.06758345823357625],[2019,0.03993491297777665],[2020,-0.10554072568571765],[2021,0.08662874463899817],[2022,0.22949186364948104],[2023,0.14645871278665487],[2024,0.10074001452616038],[2025,0.08375707222988943]]; median 0.07567026523173284. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 10 of 10 years; bought back USD 20.3 billion of shares.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 16163000000; owner earnings 13985000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 15402000000; owner earnings 22201000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2018: growth capex 829000000; upkeep 18745000000; owner earnings 20840000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.03977927063339731.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 24361000000; owner earnings 8977000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 12076000000; owner earnings 31571000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 18407000000; owner earnings 61373000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 21919000000; owner earnings 34732000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); FY2024: growth capex 864000000; upkeep 23442000000; owner earnings 33680000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.025653206650831355.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/34088/000003408826000045/xom-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 28358000000; owner earnings 26479000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Dividend observations: [[2016,12453000000],[2017,13001000000],[2018,13798000000],[2019,14652000000],[2020,14865000000],[2021,14924000000],[2022,14939000000],[2023,14941000000],[2024,16704000000],[2025,17231000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/34088/000003408826000045/xom-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); FY2025: cash repurchases 20273000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); XOM.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.082 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

"Regulatory and litigation risks." (SEC filing, Feb 2026)

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/34088/000003408826000045/xom-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-18); Regulatory and litigation risks.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 6.3% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 12.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-18); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.07679381406516295. Price 174.68; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 1.857683467270271 → FY2025 6.247994336951392. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $83.32 per share

- 2016-11: $87.30 per share

- 2016-12: $90.26 per share

- 2017-01: $83.89 per share

- 2017-02: $81.32 per share

- 2017-03: $82.01 per share

- 2017-04: $81.65 per share

- 2017-05: $80.50 per share

- 2017-06: $80.73 per share

- 2017-07: $80.04 per share

- 2017-08: $76.33 per share

- 2017-09: $81.98 per share

- 2017-10: $83.35 per share

- 2017-11: $83.29 per share

- 2017-12: $83.64 per share

- 2018-01: $87.30 per share

- 2018-02: $75.74 per share

- 2018-03: $74.61 per share

- 2018-04: $77.75 per share

- 2018-05: $81.24 per share

- 2018-06: $82.73 per share

- 2018-07: $81.51 per share

- 2018-08: $80.17 per share

- 2018-09: $85.02 per share

- 2018-10: $79.68 per share

- 2018-11: $79.50 per share

- 2018-12: $68.19 per share

- 2019-01: $73.28 per share

- 2019-02: $79.03 per share

- 2019-03: $80.80 per share

- 2019-04: $80.28 per share

- 2019-05: $70.77 per share

- 2019-06: $76.63 per share

- 2019-07: $74.36 per share

- 2019-08: $68.48 per share

- 2019-09: $70.61 per share

- 2019-10: $67.57 per share

- 2019-11: $68.13 per share

- 2019-12: $69.78 per share

- 2020-01: $62.12 per share

- 2020-02: $51.44 per share

- 2020-03: $37.97 per share

- 2020-04: $46.47 per share

- 2020-05: $45.47 per share

- 2020-06: $44.72 per share

- 2020-07: $42.08 per share

- 2020-08: $39.94 per share

- 2020-09: $34.33 per share

- 2020-10: $32.62 per share

- 2020-11: $38.13 per share

- 2020-12: $41.22 per share

- 2021-01: $44.84 per share

- 2021-02: $54.37 per share

- 2021-03: $55.83 per share

- 2021-04: $57.24 per share

- 2021-05: $58.37 per share

- 2021-06: $63.08 per share

- 2021-07: $57.57 per share

- 2021-08: $54.52 per share

- 2021-09: $58.82 per share

- 2021-10: $64.47 per share

- 2021-11: $59.84 per share

- 2021-12: $61.19 per share

- 2022-01: $75.96 per share

- 2022-02: $78.42 per share

- 2022-03: $82.59 per share

- 2022-04: $85.25 per share

- 2022-05: $96.00 per share

- 2022-06: $85.64 per share

- 2022-07: $96.93 per share

- 2022-08: $95.59 per share

- 2022-09: $87.31 per share

- 2022-10: $110.81 per share

- 2022-11: $111.34 per share

- 2022-12: $110.30 per share

- 2023-01: $116.01 per share

- 2023-02: $109.91 per share

- 2023-03: $109.66 per share

- 2023-04: $118.34 per share

- 2023-05: $102.18 per share

- 2023-06: $107.25 per share

- 2023-07: $107.24 per share

- 2023-08: $111.19 per share

- 2023-09: $117.58 per share

- 2023-10: $105.85 per share

- 2023-11: $102.74 per share

- 2023-12: $99.98 per share

- 2024-01: $102.81 per share

- 2024-02: $104.52 per share

- 2024-03: $116.24 per share

- 2024-04: $118.27 per share

- 2024-05: $117.26 per share

- 2024-06: $115.12 per share

- 2024-07: $118.59 per share

- 2024-08: $117.94 per share

- 2024-09: $117.22 per share

- 2024-10: $116.78 per share

- 2024-11: $117.96 per share

- 2024-12: $107.57 per share

- 2025-01: $106.83 per share

- 2025-02: $111.33 per share

- 2025-03: $118.93 per share

- 2025-04: $105.63 per share

- 2025-05: $102.30 per share

- 2025-06: $107.80 per share

- 2025-07: $111.64 per share

- 2025-08: $114.29 per share

- 2025-09: $112.75 per share

- 2025-10: $114.36 per share

- 2025-11: $115.92 per share

- 2025-12: $120.34 per share

- 2026-01: $141.40 per share

- 2026-02: $152.50 per share

- 2026-03: $169.66 per share

- 2026-04: $154.33 per share

- 2026-05: $145.26 per share

- 2026-06: $136.72 per share

- 2026-07: $155.44 per share

- 2026-08: $160.95 per share

- 2026-09: $162.75 per share

- 2026-10: $174.08 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2016: low $22.90 per share, central $26.06 per share, high $30.26 per share

- FY2017: low $25.98 per share, central $29.56 per share, high $34.33 per share

- FY2018: low $50.01 per share, central $56.91 per share, high $66.09 per share

- FY2019: low $45.52 per share, central $51.79 per share, high $60.15 per share

- FY2020: low $32.04 per share, central $36.43 per share, high $42.28 per share

- FY2021: low $53.08 per share, central $60.35 per share, high $70.04 per share

- FY2022: low $83.80 per share, central $94.63 per share, high $109.06 per share

- FY2023: low $100.87 per share, central $113.92 per share, high $131.30 per share

- FY2024: low $89.88 per share, central $101.77 per share, high $117.60 per share

- FY2025: low $87.68 per share, central $99.63 per share, high $115.54 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/34088/000003408826000045/xom-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-18.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.