# XPO Logistics (XPO.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/XPO

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:17.562Z. Financial observations: FY2001–FY2026.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $188.83 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $25.68 per share, central $31.95 per share, high $37.12 per share. Buy at or below the central value $31.95 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:17.562Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 4.2% at the stated quote. About 4.2% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.43×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 0.04×

- FY2018: 0.04×

- FY2019: 0.05×

- FY2020: 0.02×

- FY2021: 0.04×

- FY2022: 0.05×

- FY2023: 0.06×

- FY2024: 0.08×

- FY2025: 0.09×

- LTM to Jun 2026: 0.10×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- ROIC, median of available years: 11.4%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 6.1%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 0.4 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 12.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 12.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 3.7%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2017: 18.4%

- FY2018: 19.2%

- FY2019: 6.1%

- FY2020: 1.1%

- FY2021: 7.8%

- FY2022: 11.6%

- FY2023: 9.3%

- FY2024: 13.5%

- FY2025: 11.2%

- LTM to Jun 2026: 15.2%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.35×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $660M

- Net income, five-year total: $1.9B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 230.1%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -2.4 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 6.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.35×

- FY2022: 1.00×

- FY2023: -4.77×

- FY2024: 0.58×

- FY2025: 0.69×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 18.4% vs 11.2%

- Per-share earnings: 0.33 to 2.66 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: -2.7%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 5.3%

- Market cap gain: $13B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.3B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: -2.7%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 5.3%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 29.6%

- Per-share value change: $2.32

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $0.33

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.66

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.47

- Average buyback yield: 5.2%

- Buyback history: 10 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $77M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $3.3B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 18.4%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 11.2%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $0.33

- FY2017: $1.58

- FY2018: $1.86

- FY2019: $2.35

- FY2020: $1.20

- FY2021: $2.95

- FY2022: $5.74

- FY2023: $1.60

- FY2024: $3.23

- FY2025: $2.66

### accounting: pass

- restructuring or one-time charges in at least three of five years

- Sloan accruals: -8.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.05×

- Restructuring years, last five: 3

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 7.8%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.12×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 1.00×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -4.8%

- FY2017: -3.6%

- FY2018: -5.5%

- FY2019: -2.6%

- FY2020: -4.8%

- FY2021: -4.4%

- FY2022: -2.6%

- FY2023: -6.6%

- FY2024: -5.5%

- FY2025: -8.2%

## Holders

- [Henry Ellenbogen](https://gigainvestors.com/DCP): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Mason Hawkins](https://gigainvestors.com/SE): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 26.7% a year for ten years · sales +5.1%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:54.318Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 26.7% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-31: XPO Cuts Costs, Expands Margins Despite Freight Slowdown ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/xpo-cuts-costs-expands-margins-174950309.html))

- 2025-10-27: XPO to record $35M cost over inherited legal issue ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/xpo-record-35m-cost-over-115100663.html))

- 2026-02-06: XPO Q4 Deep Dive: Productivity Gains and Pricing Drive Outperformance in Freight Market ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/xpo-q4-deep-dive-productivity-053557874.html))

### Sales · FY2025–2026

sales +5.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166003/000116600326000016/xpo-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-05.

- FY2017: $15B 

- FY2018: $17B 

- FY2019: $11B 

- FY2020: $6.2B 

- FY2021: $7.2B 

- FY2022: $7.7B 

- FY2023: $7.7B 

- FY2024: $8.1B 

- FY2025: $8.2B 

- FY2026: $8.6B 

### Gross margin · FY2026

gross margin 12.8%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166003/000116600326000016/xpo-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-05.

- FY2017: 14.6% 

- FY2018: 14.7% 

- FY2019: 15.6% 

- FY2020: 15.1% 

- FY2021: 7.3% 

- FY2022: 9.5% 

- FY2023: 9.9% 

- FY2024: 11.3% 

- FY2025: 12.0% 

- FY2026: 12.8% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in trucking; annual sales are USD 8.2 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166003/000116600326000016/xpo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-05); FY2025: revenue 8157000000; grossProfit 979000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); XPO.US: XPO, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides freight transportation services in the United States, North America, France, the United Kingdom, and rest of Europe. The company operates in two segments, North American Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) and European Transportation. The North American LTL segment provides shippers with geographic density and day-definite domestic and cross-border services to the U.S., Mexico, Canada, and the Caribbean. The European Transportation segment offers dedicated truckload, LTL, truck brokerage, managed transportation, last mile, freight forwarding, and warehousing and multimodal solutions to an extensive base of customers within the consumer, trade, and industrial markets. The company was formerly known as XPO Logistics, Inc. and changed its name to XPO, Inc. in December 2022. The company was founded in 1989 and is based in Greenwich, Connecticut.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 9.9% to 12% during 2023–25; it earns 11.4% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 9.9%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 11.3%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166003/000116600326000016/xpo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-05); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 12%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); 10-year return on capital observations [[2017,0.18388625592417063],[2018,0.19208849285604548],[2019,0.060682620572153886],[2020,0.011209771796372147],[2021,0.07797360268659047],[2022,0.1156422438943069],[2023,0.09323901811650442],[2024,0.13462976813762154],[2025,0.1120401150730636],[2026,0.15152831044946122]]; median 0.11384117948368525. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Spends 17.2% of cash earnings on expansion; earns over 100% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 483400000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 228600000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2017: growth capex 0; upkeep 503800000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 494200000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 551000000; owner earnings 587000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 601000000; owner earnings 285000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 249000000; owner earnings 239000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2021: growth capex 0; upkeep 269000000; owner earnings 452000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2022: growth capex 129000000; upkeep 392000000; owner earnings 666000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.19369369369369369.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); FY2024: growth capex 137994385.49754786; upkeep 651005614.5024521; owner earnings 225994385.49754786. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.6106097954324851.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166003/000116600326000016/xpo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-05); FY2025: growth capex 37478126.35945392; upkeep 619521873.6405461; owner earnings 217478126.35945392. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.17233055566015418.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); Incremental return on capital 2.3011416551643546, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); Dividend observations: [[2016,5400000],[2017,3000000],[2018,8000000],[2019,8000000],[2020,22000000],[2021,384000000],[2022,0],[2023,0],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166003/000116600326000016/xpo-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-05); FY2025: cash repurchases 125000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 2.1% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); XPO.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 2.145 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 26.7% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-05); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.3781181098781953. Price 188.83; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share -0.48148831110291557 → FY2025 1.8275472803315456. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $11.38 per share

- 2016-11: $15.39 per share

- 2016-12: $14.92 per share

- 2017-01: $15.46 per share

- 2017-02: $17.63 per share

- 2017-03: $16.55 per share

- 2017-04: $17.07 per share

- 2017-05: $18.18 per share

- 2017-06: $22.34 per share

- 2017-07: $20.78 per share

- 2017-08: $21.15 per share

- 2017-09: $23.43 per share

- 2017-10: $23.97 per share

- 2017-11: $27.32 per share

- 2017-12: $31.66 per share

- 2018-01: $32.64 per share

- 2018-02: $34.02 per share

- 2018-03: $35.19 per share

- 2018-04: $33.58 per share

- 2018-05: $36.38 per share

- 2018-06: $34.63 per share

- 2018-07: $34.47 per share

- 2018-08: $36.81 per share

- 2018-09: $39.46 per share

- 2018-10: $30.90 per share

- 2018-11: $26.22 per share

- 2018-12: $19.72 per share

- 2019-01: $21.01 per share

- 2019-02: $17.40 per share

- 2019-03: $18.58 per share

- 2019-04: $23.53 per share

- 2019-05: $18.01 per share

- 2019-06: $19.98 per share

- 2019-07: $23.33 per share

- 2019-08: $24.49 per share

- 2019-09: $24.74 per share

- 2019-10: $26.41 per share

- 2019-11: $28.58 per share

- 2019-12: $27.55 per share

- 2020-01: $30.74 per share

- 2020-02: $25.57 per share

- 2020-03: $16.85 per share

- 2020-04: $23.07 per share

- 2020-05: $27.24 per share

- 2020-06: $26.70 per share

- 2020-07: $25.93 per share

- 2020-08: $30.51 per share

- 2020-09: $29.26 per share

- 2020-10: $31.11 per share

- 2020-11: $36.88 per share

- 2020-12: $41.20 per share

- 2021-01: $38.16 per share

- 2021-02: $40.30 per share

- 2021-03: $42.62 per share

- 2021-04: $48.09 per share

- 2021-05: $50.79 per share

- 2021-06: $48.35 per share

- 2021-07: $47.94 per share

- 2021-08: $51.64 per share

- 2021-09: $47.28 per share

- 2021-10: $50.98 per share

- 2021-11: $43.04 per share

- 2021-12: $46.00 per share

- 2022-01: $39.31 per share

- 2022-02: $43.18 per share

- 2022-03: $43.25 per share

- 2022-04: $31.96 per share

- 2022-05: $31.75 per share

- 2022-06: $28.61 per share

- 2022-07: $35.49 per share

- 2022-08: $31.14 per share

- 2022-09: $26.45 per share

- 2022-10: $30.74 per share

- 2022-11: $38.62 per share

- 2022-12: $33.29 per share

- 2023-01: $39.86 per share

- 2023-02: $33.36 per share

- 2023-03: $31.90 per share

- 2023-04: $44.18 per share

- 2023-05: $46.93 per share

- 2023-06: $59.00 per share

- 2023-07: $69.24 per share

- 2023-08: $74.63 per share

- 2023-09: $74.66 per share

- 2023-10: $75.81 per share

- 2023-11: $86.28 per share

- 2023-12: $87.59 per share

- 2024-01: $85.44 per share

- 2024-02: $120.32 per share

- 2024-03: $122.03 per share

- 2024-04: $107.46 per share

- 2024-05: $106.98 per share

- 2024-06: $106.15 per share

- 2024-07: $114.89 per share

- 2024-08: $114.62 per share

- 2024-09: $107.51 per share

- 2024-10: $130.53 per share

- 2024-11: $152.41 per share

- 2024-12: $131.15 per share

- 2025-01: $133.67 per share

- 2025-02: $122.96 per share

- 2025-03: $107.58 per share

- 2025-04: $106.12 per share

- 2025-05: $113.83 per share

- 2025-06: $126.29 per share

- 2025-07: $120.29 per share

- 2025-08: $129.70 per share

- 2025-09: $129.27 per share

- 2025-10: $143.87 per share

- 2025-11: $142.06 per share

- 2025-12: $135.91 per share

- 2026-01: $148.11 per share

- 2026-02: $210.47 per share

- 2026-03: $194.55 per share

- 2026-04: $220.13 per share

- 2026-05: $214.25 per share

- 2026-06: $205.29 per share

- 2026-07: $200.97 per share

- 2026-08: $193.99 per share

- 2026-09: $175.98 per share

- 2026-10: $188.83 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2018: low $16.86 per share, central $23.78 per share, high $27.82 per share

- FY2019: low $18.38 per share, central $20.79 per share, high $23.99 per share

- FY2020: low $41.02 per share, central $44.27 per share, high $48.59 per share

- FY2021: low $24.19 per share, central $27.43 per share, high $31.73 per share

- FY2022: low $30.81 per share, central $34.70 per share, high $39.87 per share

- FY2023: low $36.75 per share, central $51.57 per share, high $60.19 per share

- FY2024: low $35.67 per share, central $49.97 per share, high $58.53 per share

- FY2025: low $24.26 per share, central $30.13 per share, high $34.97 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1166003/000116600326000016/xpo-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-05.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.