4 loss years were recorded (limit 2), and average operating margin was negative (must be zero or higher), and margins varied 420.1% around their average (limit 35%).
- 8y median
- -2.5%
- Worst year
- -45.3%
- Latest · LTM
- 25.1%
# Clear Secure (YOU.US) Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/YOU Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:18.948Z. Financial observations: FY2019–FY2026. Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD. ## Verdict Not a wonderful business Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no. Share price: $45.02 per share; close as of 2026-10-15. Estimated value: low $11.36 per share, central $12.06 per share, high $13.00 per share. Buy at or below the central value $12.06 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:18.948Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals. Expected annual return: 4.0% at the stated quote. About 4.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points). ## Checklist ### understandable: fail - 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational) - more than 2 net loss years - negative average operating margin - operating margin variation exceeds 0.35 - Financial history: 8 years - Years with declining revenue: 0 - Years with a net loss: 4 - Operating margin variation: 4.20× Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations. - FY2019: -0.29× - FY2020: -0.08× - FY2021: -0.45× - FY2022: -0.30× - FY2023: 0.03× - FY2024: 0.16× - FY2025: 0.21× - LTM to Jun 2026: 0.25× ### moat: fail - Years with nonpositive invested capital use equity plus debt and leases; positive earnings with no positive capital are shown above 100%. - ROIC median below threshold - ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed) - ROIC, median of available years: -14.9% - ROIC, second-lowest year: -26.1% - Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.3 pp - Typical gross margin (annual median): 63.2% - Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 63.5% - Years with nonpositive capital: 7 - Capital spending / revenue: 7.3% Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations. - FY2019: -26.1% - FY2020: -14.9% - FY2021: -32.7% - FY2022: -24.2% - FY2023: 5.5% - FY2024: 38.5% - FY2025: 52.5% ### economics: pass - Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 1.01× - Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No - Owner earnings, five-year total: $207M - Net income, five-year total: $205M - Return on incremental invested capital: 1565.2% - Working capital / revenue, annual change: -0.7 pp Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations. - FY2021: 1.36× - FY2022: 1.00× - FY2023: 1.00× - FY2024: 1.06× - FY2025: 1.03× ### management: pass - potential debt-funded buybacks (informational) - buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational) - ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -26.1% vs 38.5% - Per-share earnings: -0.49 to 1.12 (three-year endpoint medians) - Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes - Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 5.9% - Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 5.9% - Per-share value change: $1.61 - Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.49 - Per-share value, ending three-year median: $1.12 - Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.90 - Average buyback yield: 3.0% - Buyback history: 5 years - Debt-funded buybacks: Yes - ROIC, first three-year median: -26.1% - ROIC, last three-year median: 38.5% Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations. - FY2019: -$0.74 - FY2020: -$0.13 - FY2021: -$0.49 - FY2022: -$0.80 - FY2023: $0.31 - FY2024: $1.17 - FY2025: $1.12 ### accounting: pass - latest-year receivables to sales index (DSRI) exceeds 1.465 - Sloan accruals: -20.2% - Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 3.22× - Restructuring years, last five: 0 - Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 10.5% - Earnings backed by cash: Yes - Operating cash / earnings: 3.41× - Accounting red flags: 1 - Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.37× Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations. - FY2019: -22.2% - FY2020: 1.3% - FY2021: -13.0% - FY2022: -22.5% - FY2023: -18.8% - FY2024: -10.5% - FY2025: -20.2% ## Holders - [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts. ## Price story Price needs cash profits to grow 25.3% a year for ten years · sales +11.1% Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:54.759Z; price observation 2026-10-15. Price needs cash profits to grow 25.3% a year for ten years - 2026-05-16: Clear Secure (YOU) Valuation Check After Earnings Beat And Ongoing Airport Expansion ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/clear-secure-valuation-check-earnings-201150627.html)) ### Sales · FY2025–2026 sales +11.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1856314/000185631426000006/you-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25. - FY2019: $192M - FY2020: $231M - FY2021: $254M - FY2022: $437M - FY2023: $614M - FY2024: $770M - FY2025: $901M - FY2026: $1.0B ### Gross margin · FY2025 gross margin 64.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1856314/000185631426000006/you-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-25. - FY2019: 52.0% - FY2020: 68.1% - FY2021: 58.7% - FY2022: 63.2% - FY2023: 62.3% - FY2024: 63.5% - FY2025: 64.4% ## Owner memo Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z. ### How it makes money Operates in software application; annual sales are USD 900.8 million. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1856314/000185631426000006/you-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: revenue 900779000; grossProfit 580315000; margin = grossProfit / revenue. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); YOU.US: Clear Secure, Inc. operates a secure identity platform under the CLEAR brand name primarily in the United States. It provides secure identity platform, a multi-layered infrastructure consisting of front-end, including enrollment, verification, and linking, as well as back-end. The company also offers CLEAR Plus, a consumer aviation subscription service, which enables access to predictable entry lanes in airport security checkpoints, as well as access to broader network; and CLEAR mobile app, which is used to enroll new members and improve the experience for existing members. In addition, it provides RESERVE powered by CLEAR to reservation spot for airport locations; Home to Gate, a feature to help travelers plan and time their trip to the airport; CLEAR1, a B2B offering that extends secure identity platform to partners to create friction-free experiences for their customers; CLEAR ID, a free and mobile digital ID that allow any traveler to verify their identity; CLEAR Concierge which enhances the CLEAR value proposition for high-frequency and premium travelers, as well as travelers requiring additional assistance, such as families and senior citizens; CLEAR Perks, a suite of added benefits that help CLEAR members get an even more seamless experience; TSA PreCheck Enrollment Provided by CLEAR, as well as online renewal services; Sora ID, a one-click know your customer that enables adding know your customer services to platform offerings; and a virtual queuing technology. The company has a strategic collaboration with Samsung Electronics America, Inc. for the development of Samsung ID with CLEAR, a digital ID solution that allows users to add a US passport to Samsung Wallet and verify their identity. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in New York, New York. Clear Secure, Inc. is a subsidiary of Alclear Investments, Llc. ### Why customers stay Margins ranged from 62.3% to 64.4% during 2023–25; it lost 14.9% on its capital. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 62.3%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 63.5%. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1856314/000185631426000006/you-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 64.4%. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); 7-year return on capital observations [[2019,-0.2606922019318903],[2020,-0.14856008901340167],[2021,-0.3270634660480597],[2022,-0.24208654855237977],[2023,0.055030003975943625],[2024,0.38544404395384346],[2025,0.5245883045603941]]; median -0.14856008901340167. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity. ### Where the cash goes Paid dividends in 7 of 7 years; bought back USD 126.3 million of shares. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2023: growth capex 4486000; upkeep 21649000; cash acquisitions 3750000; owner earnings 28108000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.2930126654333286. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 12009000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 180575532.99537453. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1856314/000185631426000006/you-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 29340000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 112598591.756023. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Dividend observations: [[2019,16250000],[2020,16250000],[2021,16250000],[2022,21843000],[2023,125195000],[2024,93368000],[2025,91883000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement. - Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1856314/000185631426000006/you-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-25); FY2025: cash repurchases 126345000 USD. ### Are managers owners Insiders own 7.3% of the company. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); YOU.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 7.317 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16. ### What the price says The price assumes cash profits grow 25.3% yearly over ten years. - Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-25); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.35735900013522726. Price 45.02; FX 1; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. Closing-price date 2026-10-15. ## Monthly share-price history (USD per share) - 2021-06: $40.00 per share - 2021-07: $49.43 per share - 2021-08: $46.47 per share - 2021-09: $41.05 per share - 2021-10: $44.69 per share - 2021-11: $31.76 per share - 2021-12: $31.37 per share - 2022-01: $24.69 per share - 2022-02: $26.93 per share - 2022-03: $26.88 per share - 2022-04: $30.42 per share - 2022-05: $27.44 per share - 2022-06: $20.00 per share - 2022-07: $25.32 per share - 2022-08: $22.94 per share - 2022-09: $22.86 per share - 2022-10: $27.02 per share - 2022-11: $31.08 per share - 2022-12: $27.43 per share - 2023-01: $31.39 per share - 2023-02: $30.74 per share - 2023-03: $26.17 per share - 2023-04: $24.19 per share - 2023-05: $24.71 per share - 2023-06: $23.17 per share - 2023-07: $23.71 per share - 2023-08: $21.74 per share - 2023-09: $19.04 per share - 2023-10: $16.82 per share - 2023-11: $21.33 per share - 2023-12: $20.65 per share - 2024-01: $19.03 per share - 2024-02: $19.25 per share - 2024-03: $21.27 per share - 2024-04: $17.47 per share - 2024-05: $16.89 per share - 2024-06: $18.71 per share - 2024-07: $21.35 per share - 2024-08: $30.39 per share - 2024-09: $33.14 per share - 2024-10: $36.78 per share - 2024-11: $25.88 per share - 2024-12: $26.64 per share - 2025-01: $23.67 per share - 2025-02: $23.71 per share - 2025-03: $25.91 per share - 2025-04: $24.68 per share - 2025-05: $24.75 per share - 2025-06: $27.76 per share - 2025-07: $29.41 per share - 2025-08: $36.31 per share - 2025-09: $33.38 per share - 2025-10: $30.47 per share - 2025-11: $35.50 per share - 2025-12: $35.08 per share - 2026-01: $32.62 per share - 2026-02: $48.64 per share - 2026-03: $48.41 per share - 2026-04: $53.39 per share - 2026-05: $55.45 per share - 2026-06: $55.73 per share - 2026-07: $55.24 per share - 2026-08: $44.15 per share - 2026-09: $41.95 per share - 2026-10: $45.02 per share ## Annual estimated value (USD per share) - FY2025: low $9.14 per share, central $9.78 per share, high $10.62 per share Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates ## Sources [Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1856314/000185631426000006/you-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-25. Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.
YOU · US
Not a wonderful business
2 quality tests fail. A lower price would not fix the business.
4 loss years were recorded (limit 2), and average operating margin was negative (must be zero or higher), and margins varied 420.1% around their average (limit 35%).
Capital return excluding acquisitions: median -14.9% (minimum 15%), and the second-worst year -26.1% (minimum 10%).
Each $1 of profit left $1.01 for owners over five years (minimum $0.80).
Per-share value rose from -0.49 to 1.12, comparing three-year medians at each end (must rise and stay positive).
Profits were backed by cash: accruals were -20.2% of assets (limit 10%).
Profit record · fail 4 loss years in 7 (at most 2), mean operating margin -10.3%, three-year average owner earnings per share 0.9 USD. 4 loss years in the last 10; at most 2 allowed. Mean operating margin over the last ten years is negative.
| Value range | $11.36 – $13.00 |
|---|---|
| Buy at or below | Central value $12.06 |
| Discount to value | 1 − 45.02 / 12.06 = -273.2% |
| Return / year | About 4.0% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%) |
| Cash-flow inputs | Owner cash USD 0.47/share; 0.0% growth for 5 years, then fades to 3.0%; excess cash USD 6.23/share today. |
| Required return | 10.0% / year, earned by construction at the central value |