# Yum China Holdings (YUMC.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/YUMC

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:19.611Z. Financial observations: FY2013–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

A wonderful business at a fair price

Quality tests for Buy: pass (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: yes.

Share price: $44.67 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $42.41 per share, central $60.44 per share, high $70.49 per share. Buy at or below the central value $60.44 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:19.611Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 12.5% at the stated quote. About 12.5% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.18×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.09×

- FY2017: 0.10×

- FY2018: 0.11×

- FY2019: 0.10×

- FY2020: 0.12×

- FY2021: 0.14×

- FY2022: 0.07×

- FY2023: 0.10×

- FY2024: 0.10×

- FY2025: 0.12×

### moat: pass

- ROIC, median of available years: 24.7%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 19.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: -0.9 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 16.4%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 17.3%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 5.9%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 17.2%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 35.6%

- FY2017: 35.6%

- FY2018: 58.6%

- FY2019: 19.8%

- FY2020: 20.1%

- FY2021: 27.1%

- FY2022: 11.7%

- FY2023: 25.1%

- FY2024: 19.3%

- FY2025: 24.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.96×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: $3.9B

- Net income, five-year total: $4.1B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 62.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.1 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 0.9 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -0.3%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 1.00×

- FY2022: 0.83×

- FY2023: 1.00×

- FY2024: 0.92×

- FY2025: 1.00×

### management: pass

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 35.6% vs 24.4%

- Per-share earnings: 1.00 to 2.34 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 0.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: -1.6%

- Market cap gain: $6.9B

- Cumulative retained earnings: $1.7B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 0.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: -1.6%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value growth: 11.2%

- Per-share value change: $1.34

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: $1.00

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: $2.34

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.63

- Average buyback yield: 2.7%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: $576M

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: $7.2B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 35.6%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 24.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: $1.36

- FY2017: $1.00

- FY2018: $1.79

- FY2019: $1.84

- FY2020: $1.95

- FY2021: $2.28

- FY2022: $1.04

- FY2023: $1.97

- FY2024: $2.34

- FY2025: $2.50

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -5.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.24×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 2.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.58×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.39×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -9.8%

- FY2017: -11.3%

- FY2018: -13.6%

- FY2019: -6.8%

- FY2020: -3.0%

- FY2021: -1.1%

- FY2022: -8.2%

- FY2023: -5.4%

- FY2024: -4.6%

- FY2025: -5.0%

## Holders

- [David Hoeft](https://gigainvestors.com/DAC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Francois Rochon](https://gigainvestors.com/GC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Robert Vinall](https://gigainvestors.com/RVC): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 30% since Mar 2023 · "Yum China shares dip as same-store sales growth slows" (finance.yahoo.com, Nov 2025) · sales +4.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:54.926Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 3.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-05-13: YUMC Q1 Earnings Call: Flat Sales Amid Consumer Headwinds and Store Expansion in China ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yumc-q1-earnings-call-flat-131522374.html))

- 2025-11-04: Yum China shares dip as same-store sales growth slows ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/yum-china-shares-dip-same-104023770.html))

- 2026-02-04: Yum China beats top-line and bottom-line estimates; initiates FY26 outlook ([seekingalpha.com](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4546849-yum-china-beats-top-line-and-bottom-line-estimates-initiates-fy26-outlook?utm_source=feed_news_all&utm_medium=referral&feed_item_type=news))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +4.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1673358/000119312526082824/yumc-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: $6.8B 

- FY2017: $7.8B 

- FY2018: $8.4B 

- FY2019: $8.8B 

- FY2020: $8.3B 

- FY2021: $9.9B 

- FY2022: $9.6B 

- FY2023: $11B 

- FY2024: $11B 

- FY2025: $12B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 17.3%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1673358/000119312526082824/yumc-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-27.

- FY2016: 16.2% 

- FY2017: 16.5% 

- FY2018: 15.6% 

- FY2019: 20.6% 

- FY2020: 15.3% 

- FY2021: 14.3% 

- FY2022: 14.9% 

- FY2023: 73.6% 

- FY2024: 16.7% 

- FY2025: 17.3% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in restaurants; annual sales are USD 11.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1673358/000119312526082824/yumc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: revenue 11797000000; grossProfit 2039000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); YUMC.US: Yum China Holdings, Inc. owns, operates, and franchises restaurants in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through two KFC, Pizza Hut, and All Other segments. It operates restaurants under the KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, Lavazza, Little Sheep, and Huang Ji Huang concepts. The company also offers online food delivery services. Yum China Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 16.7% to 73.6% during 2023–25; it earns 24.7% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 73.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 16.7%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1673358/000119312526082824/yumc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 17.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.3564577793652683],[2017,0.3558761435608726],[2018,0.5860348620748012],[2019,0.1976430790542202],[2020,0.2013529659173613],[2021,0.27147934894493053],[2022,0.1173589913735899],[2023,0.2507936507936508],[2024,0.1931487127716016],[2025,0.2437484826414178]]; median 0.2472710667175343. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 20.7% of cash earnings; earns 62.9% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2016: growth capex 0; upkeep 436000000; owner earnings 468000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2017: growth capex 6000000; upkeep 409000000; cash acquisitions 25000000; owner earnings 398000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.07788944723618091.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2018: growth capex 25000000; upkeep 445000000; cash acquisitions 91000000; owner earnings 708000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.1638418079096045.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2019: growth capex 7000000; upkeep 428000000; owner earnings 713000000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.009817671809256662.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 419000000; cash acquisitions 288000000; owner earnings 815000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.35337423312883437.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2021: growth capex 173000000; upkeep 516000000; cash acquisitions 115000000; owner earnings 990000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.2909090909090909.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 679000000; cash acquisitions 23000000; owner earnings 365000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.06301369863013699.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2023: growth capex 257000000; upkeep 453000000; cash acquisitions 20000000; owner earnings 827000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.3349455864570738.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); FY2024: growth capex 145797129.49644518; upkeep 559202870.5035548; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 833655290.7870016. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.17488898722013418.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1673358/000119312526082824/yumc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: growth capex 178000000; upkeep 448000000; cash acquisitions 14000000; owner earnings 929000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.20667384284176535.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Incremental return on capital 0.6289730843098194, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Dividend observations: [[2016,38000000],[2017,38000000],[2018,161000000],[2019,181000000],[2020,95000000],[2021,203000000],[2022,202000000],[2023,216000000],[2024,248000000],[2025,353000000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1673358/000119312526082824/yumc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); FY2025: cash repurchases 1144000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 0.4% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); YUMC.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 0.416 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What could break it

The Company partners with over 850 independent suppliers for restaurant operations, which are mostly China-based.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1673358/000119312526082824/yumc-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-27); We control our raw material costs by entering into long-term bulk purchase agreements for our key food ingredients, fully utilizing all chicken parts, implementing dynamic price management to respond to market conditions, sourcing directly from origin, expanding local sourcing resources and developing long-term relationships with suppliers. The Company partners with over 850 independent suppliers for restaurant operations, which are mostly China-based. We implement a strict supplier qualification process that includes supplier compliance checks and on-site audits to ensure the supplier meets our food safety and quality control standards.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 3.5% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 14.5%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-27); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.040375781387572904. Price 44.67; FX 1; discount 0.1; same compounder ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.6487825914938296 → FY2025 2.504043126684636. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $24.24 per share

- 2016-11: $28.12 per share

- 2016-12: $26.12 per share

- 2017-01: $27.48 per share

- 2017-02: $26.59 per share

- 2017-03: $27.20 per share

- 2017-04: $34.12 per share

- 2017-05: $38.41 per share

- 2017-06: $39.43 per share

- 2017-07: $35.79 per share

- 2017-08: $35.36 per share

- 2017-09: $39.97 per share

- 2017-10: $40.35 per share

- 2017-11: $40.83 per share

- 2017-12: $40.02 per share

- 2018-01: $46.39 per share

- 2018-02: $43.32 per share

- 2018-03: $41.50 per share

- 2018-04: $42.76 per share

- 2018-05: $39.30 per share

- 2018-06: $38.46 per share

- 2018-07: $36.08 per share

- 2018-08: $38.68 per share

- 2018-09: $35.11 per share

- 2018-10: $36.08 per share

- 2018-11: $35.83 per share

- 2018-12: $33.53 per share

- 2019-01: $36.45 per share

- 2019-02: $41.72 per share

- 2019-03: $44.91 per share

- 2019-04: $47.54 per share

- 2019-05: $40.01 per share

- 2019-06: $46.20 per share

- 2019-07: $45.50 per share

- 2019-08: $45.43 per share

- 2019-09: $45.43 per share

- 2019-10: $42.50 per share

- 2019-11: $44.52 per share

- 2019-12: $48.01 per share

- 2020-01: $43.07 per share

- 2020-02: $43.79 per share

- 2020-03: $42.63 per share

- 2020-04: $48.46 per share

- 2020-05: $46.34 per share

- 2020-06: $48.07 per share

- 2020-07: $51.24 per share

- 2020-08: $57.71 per share

- 2020-09: $52.95 per share

- 2020-10: $53.23 per share

- 2020-11: $56.38 per share

- 2020-12: $57.09 per share

- 2021-01: $56.71 per share

- 2021-02: $59.84 per share

- 2021-03: $59.21 per share

- 2021-04: $62.92 per share

- 2021-05: $67.64 per share

- 2021-06: $66.25 per share

- 2021-07: $62.19 per share

- 2021-08: $61.56 per share

- 2021-09: $58.11 per share

- 2021-10: $57.08 per share

- 2021-11: $50.10 per share

- 2021-12: $49.84 per share

- 2022-01: $48.17 per share

- 2022-02: $52.02 per share

- 2022-03: $41.54 per share

- 2022-04: $41.80 per share

- 2022-05: $45.46 per share

- 2022-06: $48.50 per share

- 2022-07: $48.71 per share

- 2022-08: $50.11 per share

- 2022-09: $47.33 per share

- 2022-10: $41.35 per share

- 2022-11: $55.12 per share

- 2022-12: $54.65 per share

- 2023-01: $61.61 per share

- 2023-02: $58.73 per share

- 2023-03: $63.39 per share

- 2023-04: $61.18 per share

- 2023-05: $56.46 per share

- 2023-06: $56.50 per share

- 2023-07: $61.02 per share

- 2023-08: $53.69 per share

- 2023-09: $55.72 per share

- 2023-10: $52.56 per share

- 2023-11: $43.18 per share

- 2023-12: $42.43 per share

- 2024-01: $34.59 per share

- 2024-02: $42.89 per share

- 2024-03: $39.79 per share

- 2024-04: $36.51 per share

- 2024-05: $35.76 per share

- 2024-06: $30.84 per share

- 2024-07: $30.24 per share

- 2024-08: $33.81 per share

- 2024-09: $45.02 per share

- 2024-10: $44.11 per share

- 2024-11: $46.55 per share

- 2024-12: $48.17 per share

- 2025-01: $46.25 per share

- 2025-02: $49.41 per share

- 2025-03: $52.06 per share

- 2025-04: $43.31 per share

- 2025-05: $43.65 per share

- 2025-06: $44.71 per share

- 2025-07: $46.68 per share

- 2025-08: $44.72 per share

- 2025-09: $42.92 per share

- 2025-10: $43.26 per share

- 2025-11: $48.14 per share

- 2025-12: $47.74 per share

- 2026-01: $49.42 per share

- 2026-02: $54.91 per share

- 2026-03: $48.78 per share

- 2026-04: $48.45 per share

- 2026-05: $42.43 per share

- 2026-06: $40.87 per share

- 2026-07: $48.18 per share

- 2026-08: $44.61 per share

- 2026-09: $41.10 per share

- 2026-10: $44.67 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2017: low $10.07 per share, central $11.08 per share, high $12.42 per share

- FY2018: low $15.02 per share, central $16.66 per share, high $18.85 per share

- FY2019: low $20.95 per share, central $23.32 per share, high $26.46 per share

- FY2020: low $28.45 per share, central $30.96 per share, high $34.31 per share

- FY2021: low $29.35 per share, central $32.23 per share, high $36.06 per share

- FY2022: low $27.67 per share, central $30.53 per share, high $34.33 per share

- FY2023: low $30.78 per share, central $37.60 per share, high $43.06 per share

- FY2024: low $30.51 per share, central $37.91 per share, high $43.64 per share

- FY2025: low $37.65 per share, central $53.60 per share, high $62.50 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1673358/000119312526082824/yumc-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-27.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.