# Zillow Group (ZG.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ZG

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:21.133Z. Financial observations: FY2006–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: USD.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: fail; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $32.43 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 3 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- more than 2 net loss years

- negative average operating margin

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 3

- Years with a net loss: 9

- Operating margin variation: 1.58×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -0.23×

- FY2017: -0.15×

- FY2018: -0.10×

- FY2019: -0.09×

- FY2020: 0.10×

- FY2021: 0.11×

- FY2022: -0.05×

- FY2023: -0.14×

- FY2024: -0.09×

- FY2025: -0.01×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 8.6pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: -15.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -32.3%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 8.6 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 82.8%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 74.1%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 6.5%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: -3.3%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -32.3%

- FY2017: -36.3%

- FY2018: -17.7%

- FY2019: -12.7%

- FY2020: 9.4%

- FY2021: 13.7%

- FY2022: -12.0%

- FY2023: -29.3%

- FY2024: -18.8%

- FY2025: -2.3%

### economics: fail

- owner earnings cash conversion below threshold

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: -$463M

- Net income, five-year total: -$876M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.0 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: -4.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: 4.0%

Chart: Owner earnings · five years; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: -$479M

- FY2022: -$61M

- FY2023: -$101M

- FY2024: -$5.0M

- FY2025: $183M

### management: fail

- Historical market-dollar context (not the management verdict): 2016 to 2025 (9 years)

- potential debt-funded buybacks (informational)

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: -32.3% vs -18.8%

- Per-share earnings: -0.88 to -0.48 (three-year endpoint medians)

- per-share value declined or ends nonpositive

- five-year and ten-year diluted share growth both above threshold

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 4.1%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 1.9%

- Market cap gain: $11B

- Cumulative retained earnings: -$1.4B

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 4.1%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 1.9%

- $1 test, starting fiscal year: FY2016

- $1 test, ending fiscal year: FY2025

- Per-share value change: $0.40

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: -$0.88

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: -$0.48

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.43

- Average buyback yield: 2.6%

- Buyback history: 9 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: Yes

- Acquisition spending: $1.0B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: -$1.8B

- ROIC, first three-year median: -32.3%

- ROIC, last three-year median: -18.8%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -$1.22

- FY2017: -$0.51

- FY2018: -$0.61

- FY2019: -$1.48

- FY2020: -$0.70

- FY2021: -$2.02

- FY2022: -$0.42

- FY2023: -$0.68

- FY2024: -$0.48

- FY2025: $0.09

### accounting: pass

- stock compensation exceeds 15% of operating cash flow

- Sloan accruals: -6.1%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 1.46×

- Restructuring years, last five: 2

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 106.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 16.00×

- Accounting red flags: 1

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.64×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -7.3%

- FY2017: -10.9%

- FY2018: -2.9%

- FY2019: 5.0%

- FY2020: -7.8%

- FY2021: 24.8%

- FY2022: -70.2%

- FY2023: -7.7%

- FY2024: -9.3%

- FY2025: -6.1%

## Holders

- [Thomas Graham Kahn](https://gigainvestors.com/KB): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 69% since Oct 2021 · "Zillow's August Market Report shows elevated rates dampen home sales" (finance.yahoo.com, Sep 2026) · sales +15.5%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:55.282Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

- 2025-08-06: Zillow’s Revenue Beat Estimates. The Home Listings Portal Is Expanding Its Businesses. ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/m/b497ffbe-ba27-33f4-a2b0-f13d6c358529/zillow%E2%80%99s-revenue-beat.html))

- 2025-11-03: ZG Q3 Deep Dive: AI Investments and Rentals Expansion Drive Outperformance ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zg-q3-deep-dive-ai-133546870.html))

- 2025-12-15: Zillow stock falls as Google tests new real estate ad format ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zillow-stock-falls-google-tests-134016657.html))

- 2026-02-10: Zillow stock dips after Q4 earnings miss, EBITDA margin headwind ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zillow-stock-falls-q4-earnings-214741327.html))

- 2026-05-21: Zillow Faces Listings Fragmentation, New Competitive Risks, RBC Says ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/zillow-faces-listings-fragmentation-competitive-162238733.html))

- 2026-09-08: Zillow's August Market Report shows elevated rates dampen home sales ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/articles/zillows-august-market-report-shows-120000618.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +15.5%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1617640/000161764026000015/z-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2016: $847M 

- FY2017: $1.1B 

- FY2018: $1.3B 

- FY2019: $2.7B 

- FY2020: $1.6B 

- FY2021: $2.1B 

- FY2022: $2.0B 

- FY2023: $1.9B 

- FY2024: $2.2B 

- FY2025: $2.6B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 74.1%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1617640/000161764026000015/z-20251231.htm; observed 2026-02-11.

- FY2016: 91.5% 

- FY2017: 92.1% 

- FY2018: 88.5% 

- FY2019: 47.8% 

- FY2020: 84.3% 

- FY2021: 84.8% 

- FY2022: 81.3% 

- FY2023: 78.4% 

- FY2024: 76.4% 

- FY2025: 74.1% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in internet content & information; annual sales are USD 2.6 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1617640/000161764026000015/z-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: revenue 2583000000; grossProfit 1915000000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ZG.US: Zillow Group, Inc. operates a real estate application and website that connects consumers with technology, agents and loan officers, and digital solutions in the United States. The company operates through four categories: Residential, Mortgages, Rentals, and Other. The Residential segment includes agent and software, as well as new construction marketing solutions and StreetEasy for sale products. This segment also offers advertising and marketing solutions for real estate agents, premier agent, SaaS customer relationship management, real estate transaction management, appointment center, and enhanced listing services. The Rentals segment includes advertising and a suite of tools for property managers, landlords, and other rental professionals, as well as rental applications. The Mortgages segment provides mortgage originations through Zillow Home Loans and advertising to mortgage lenders and other mortgage professionals; and title and escrow services. The company also generates revenue from display advertising. It also offers a brand portfolio including Zillow, Zillow Premier Agent, Zillow Rentals, Zillow New Construction, Trulia, StreetEasy, Out East, HotPads, Follow Up Boss, ShowingTime, dotloop and Zillow Closing; and a suite of marketing software and technology solutions for the real estate industry. Zillow Group, Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 74.1% to 78.4% during 2023–25; it lost 15.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 78.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 76.4%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1617640/000161764026000015/z-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 74.1%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,-0.32343696727941257],[2017,-0.3626538749489541],[2018,-0.1768666950189642],[2019,-0.12655182014293243],[2020,0.09382422802850356],[2021,0.13719862227324914],[2022,-0.1198531810766721],[2023,-0.2929945054945055],[2024,-0.18818621523579201],[2025,-0.02261136712749616]]; median -0.15170925758094833. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Paid dividends in 4 of 10 years; bought back USD 670 million of shares.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1617640/000161764026000015/z-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 133000000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 183000000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,0],[2018,0],[2019,65462000],[2020,0],[2021,4883748000],[2022,1188000000],[2023,72000000],[2024,0],[2025,0]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1617640/000161764026000015/z-20251231.htm (filed 2026-02-11); FY2025: cash repurchases 670000000 USD.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 3.9% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ZG.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 3.853 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price is 3.2 times annual sales.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-02-11); Closing price 32.43 USD; reporting-to-trading FX 1; FY2025 annual sales per share 10.164609215440132; price multiple 3.190481730545877. FY2025 cash earnings/share 0.7201407225805436. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2016-10: $33.03 per share

- 2016-11: $35.15 per share

- 2016-12: $36.45 per share

- 2017-01: $35.98 per share

- 2017-02: $33.63 per share

- 2017-03: $33.81 per share

- 2017-04: $38.49 per share

- 2017-05: $43.89 per share

- 2017-06: $48.84 per share

- 2017-07: $45.43 per share

- 2017-08: $39.92 per share

- 2017-09: $40.15 per share

- 2017-10: $41.31 per share

- 2017-11: $41.06 per share

- 2017-12: $40.74 per share

- 2018-01: $44.79 per share

- 2018-02: $47.54 per share

- 2018-03: $54.00 per share

- 2018-04: $48.37 per share

- 2018-05: $58.24 per share

- 2018-06: $59.75 per share

- 2018-07: $56.37 per share

- 2018-08: $48.10 per share

- 2018-09: $44.20 per share

- 2018-10: $40.37 per share

- 2018-11: $36.23 per share

- 2018-12: $31.43 per share

- 2019-01: $34.81 per share

- 2019-02: $41.43 per share

- 2019-03: $34.20 per share

- 2019-04: $33.21 per share

- 2019-05: $42.33 per share

- 2019-06: $45.76 per share

- 2019-07: $49.84 per share

- 2019-08: $34.17 per share

- 2019-09: $29.55 per share

- 2019-10: $32.39 per share

- 2019-11: $39.06 per share

- 2019-12: $45.74 per share

- 2020-01: $46.20 per share

- 2020-02: $55.67 per share

- 2020-03: $33.97 per share

- 2020-04: $43.54 per share

- 2020-05: $57.96 per share

- 2020-06: $57.48 per share

- 2020-07: $68.09 per share

- 2020-08: $85.28 per share

- 2020-09: $101.54 per share

- 2020-10: $89.33 per share

- 2020-11: $110.35 per share

- 2020-12: $135.94 per share

- 2021-01: $138.72 per share

- 2021-02: $169.82 per share

- 2021-03: $131.38 per share

- 2021-04: $133.35 per share

- 2021-05: $118.29 per share

- 2021-06: $122.53 per share

- 2021-07: $107.13 per share

- 2021-08: $95.60 per share

- 2021-09: $88.58 per share

- 2021-10: $105.72 per share

- 2021-11: $54.11 per share

- 2021-12: $62.22 per share

- 2022-01: $49.86 per share

- 2022-02: $57.27 per share

- 2022-03: $48.23 per share

- 2022-04: $38.65 per share

- 2022-05: $39.96 per share

- 2022-06: $31.81 per share

- 2022-07: $35.00 per share

- 2022-08: $33.40 per share

- 2022-09: $28.63 per share

- 2022-10: $30.93 per share

- 2022-11: $37.40 per share

- 2022-12: $31.21 per share

- 2023-01: $42.96 per share

- 2023-02: $41.35 per share

- 2023-03: $43.70 per share

- 2023-04: $42.78 per share

- 2023-05: $44.79 per share

- 2023-06: $49.20 per share

- 2023-07: $53.22 per share

- 2023-08: $50.92 per share

- 2023-09: $44.79 per share

- 2023-10: $35.53 per share

- 2023-11: $39.39 per share

- 2023-12: $56.72 per share

- 2024-01: $55.09 per share

- 2024-02: $54.06 per share

- 2024-03: $47.86 per share

- 2024-04: $42.00 per share

- 2024-05: $40.15 per share

- 2024-06: $45.04 per share

- 2024-07: $47.40 per share

- 2024-08: $53.43 per share

- 2024-09: $61.93 per share

- 2024-10: $58.05 per share

- 2024-11: $81.53 per share

- 2024-12: $70.85 per share

- 2025-01: $79.20 per share

- 2025-02: $74.39 per share

- 2025-03: $66.86 per share

- 2025-04: $65.98 per share

- 2025-05: $66.17 per share

- 2025-06: $68.49 per share

- 2025-07: $76.75 per share

- 2025-08: $81.48 per share

- 2025-09: $74.44 per share

- 2025-10: $71.53 per share

- 2025-11: $72.35 per share

- 2025-12: $68.23 per share

- 2026-01: $62.24 per share

- 2026-02: $44.80 per share

- 2026-03: $41.39 per share

- 2026-04: $44.61 per share

- 2026-05: $35.36 per share

- 2026-06: $31.37 per share

- 2026-07: $34.69 per share

- 2026-08: $35.79 per share

- 2026-09: $27.70 per share

- 2026-10: $29.87 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 10-K filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1617640/000161764026000015/z-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-02-11.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.