# Ermenegildo Zegna NV (ZGN.US)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/ZGN

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:33:21.226Z. Financial observations: FY2018–FY2025.

Listing currency: USD. Reporting currency: EUR.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: $13.35 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low $9.88 per share, central $11.08 per share, high $12.69 per share. Buy at or below the central value $11.08 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:33:21.226Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 8.7% at the stated quote. About 8.7% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; US 10-year bond 5.1% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: fail

- 2 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- operating margin variation exceeds 0.35

- Financial history: 8 years

- Years with declining revenue: 2

- Years with a net loss: 2

- Operating margin variation: 1.13×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 0.08×

- FY2019: 0.07×

- FY2020: -0.02×

- FY2021: -0.07×

- FY2022: 0.10×

- FY2023: 0.11×

- FY2024: 0.09×

- FY2025: 0.09×

### moat: fail

- ROIC median below threshold

- ROIC worst years below threshold (more than 1 bad year allowed)

- Recent gross margin fell 6.1pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 7.2%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: -2.2%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 6.1 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 61.7%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 55.6%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 4.7%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 11.0%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: 6.0%

- FY2019: 5.7%

- FY2020: -2.2%

- FY2021: -11.6%

- FY2022: 12.3%

- FY2023: 14.0%

- FY2024: 8.4%

- FY2025: 8.4%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 3.59×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: EUR 750M

- Net income, five-year total: EUR 209M

- Return on incremental invested capital: >100%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 1.8 pp

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.56×

- FY2022: 2.95×

- FY2023: 1.95×

- FY2024: 2.43×

- FY2025: 2.64×

### management: pass

- buybacks unrelated to price (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 5.7% vs 8.4%

- Per-share earnings: 0.11 to 0.36 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 5.4%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 5.4%

- Per-share value growth: 27.4%

- Per-share value change: EUR 0.25

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: EUR 0.11

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: EUR 0.36

- Average buyback yield: 23.9%

- Buyback history: 1 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- ROIC, first three-year median: 5.7%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 8.4%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: EUR 0.16

- FY2019: EUR 0.11

- FY2020: EUR -0.25

- FY2021: EUR -0.67

- FY2022: EUR 0.21

- FY2023: EUR 0.48

- FY2024: EUR 0.30

- FY2025: EUR 0.36

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -8.0%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.98×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 0.0%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 3.40×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.54×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2018: -5.5%

- FY2019: -5.8%

- FY2020: -5.0%

- FY2021: -17.0%

- FY2022: -3.9%

- FY2023: -5.6%

- FY2024: -7.1%

- FY2025: -8.0%

## Holders

- [Bill Nygren](https://gigainvestors.com/HA): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

- [Dan Davidowitz](https://gigainvestors.com/pcm): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Price needs cash profits to grow 3.5% a year for ten years · sales -5.4%

Story as of 2026-10-16T09:59:55.342Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to grow 3.5% a year for ten years

- 2025-07-30: Zegna misses first-half revenue forecasts, shares dip; Thom Browne gets a new CEO ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/zegna-misses-first-half-revenue-105558061.html))

- 2026-07-23: Ermenegildo Zegna Group Records Double-Digit Revenue Growth in Q2 2026 With Accelerating DTC Momentum1 ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/ermenegildo-zegna-group-records-double-103200544.html))

- 2026-09-05: Why Ermenegildo Zegna (ZGN) Is Down 8.5% After EPS Softens Despite Reaffirmed 2027 Targets ([finance.yahoo.com](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/why-ermenegildo-zegna-zgn-down-170707115.html))

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales -5.4%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1877787/000187778726000015/zgn-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-20.

- FY2018: EUR 1.2B 

- FY2019: EUR 1.3B 

- FY2020: EUR 1.0B 

- FY2021: EUR 1.3B 

- FY2022: EUR 1.5B 

- FY2023: EUR 1.9B 

- FY2024: EUR 1.9B 

- FY2025: EUR 1.8B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 55.6%; source https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1877787/000187778726000015/zgn-20251231.htm; observed 2026-03-20.

- FY2018: 61.4% 

- FY2019: 58.8% 

- FY2020: 52.7% 

- FY2021: 62.0% 

- FY2022: 62.2% 

- FY2023: 64.3% 

- FY2024: 66.6% 

- FY2025: 55.6% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in apparel manufacturing; annual sales are EUR 1.8 billion.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1877787/000187778726000015/zgn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-20); FY2025: revenue 1841290265; grossProfit 1024212168; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ZGN.US: Ermenegildo Zegna N.V., together with its subsidiaries, designs, produces, markets, and distributes luxury menswear and womenwear, children's clothing, footwear, leather goods, and other accessories worldwide. It offers luxury leisurewear, such as knitwear, jeans, jersey and shirts, fabric and leather outerwear, and accessories; formalwear, including formal suits to tuxedos, shirts, blazers, formal coats, and accessories; and leather accessories comprising sneakers and other shoes, bags, belts and small leather accessories. The company is also manufacturing and distributing eyewear, cufflinks and jewelry, beachwear, underwear, and fragrances. In addition, it offers fine jewelry, childrenswear, textile, and home design products. The company sells its products under the ZEGNA, Thom Browne, and TOM FORD FASHION brands. It serves its products through retail stores and online channels. The company was founded in 1910 and is based in Milan, Italy. Ermenegildo Zegna N.V. operates as a subsidiary of Monterubello Societa' Semplice.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 55.6% to 66.6% during 2023–25; it earns 7.2% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-20); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 64.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-20); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 66.6%.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1877787/000187778726000015/zgn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-20); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 55.6%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-20); 8-year return on capital observations [[2018,0.06008980219917385],[2019,0.05660167067979554],[2020,-0.022213253315448156],[2021,-0.11592109226137993],[2022,0.12301959116866949],[2023,0.13993762426794268],[2024,0.0841360021176949],[2025,0.08352602229921825]]; median 0.07180791224919605. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 1.8% of cash earnings; paid dividends in 8 of 8 years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-20); FY2018: growth capex 0; upkeep 60092000; owner earnings 138210000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-20); FY2019: growth capex 0; upkeep 59505000; owner earnings 139312000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-20); FY2020: growth capex 0; upkeep 39154000; owner earnings 76474000. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-20); FY2022: growth capex 0; upkeep 73299000; cash acquisitions 585000; owner earnings 151704000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.0038561936402467965.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-20); FY2023: growth capex 0; upkeep 77877000; cash acquisitions 133420000; owner earnings 236822000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.5633767133121078.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-20); FY2024: growth capex 0; upkeep 125529000; cash acquisitions 19307000; owner earnings 187504000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.1029684700059732.

- Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1877787/000187778726000015/zgn-20251231.htm (filed 2026-03-20); FY2025: growth capex 0; upkeep 80128595; cash acquisitions 4394000; owner earnings 249781725. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.017591359015556484.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-20); Dividend observations: [[2018,14652000],[2019,12731000],[2020,1731000],[2021,102000],[2022,21852000],[2023,25031000],[2024,30290000],[2025,29287602]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 70.3% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); ZGN.US SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 70.255 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits grow 3.5% yearly over ten years.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-03-20); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate 0.0365318804778304. Price 13.35; FX 1.12128; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03.  Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (USD per share)

- 2021-01: $10.35 per share

- 2021-02: $10.47 per share

- 2021-03: $9.75 per share

- 2021-04: $9.88 per share

- 2021-05: $9.67 per share

- 2021-06: $9.76 per share

- 2021-07: $9.88 per share

- 2021-08: $9.87 per share

- 2021-09: $9.93 per share

- 2021-10: $10.05 per share

- 2021-11: $10.03 per share

- 2021-12: $10.48 per share

- 2022-01: $10.24 per share

- 2022-02: $9.67 per share

- 2022-03: $10.55 per share

- 2022-04: $9.83 per share

- 2022-05: $10.24 per share

- 2022-06: $10.55 per share

- 2022-07: $11.00 per share

- 2022-08: $10.24 per share

- 2022-09: $10.75 per share

- 2022-10: $10.96 per share

- 2022-11: $10.99 per share

- 2022-12: $10.47 per share

- 2023-01: $11.46 per share

- 2023-02: $13.02 per share

- 2023-03: $13.64 per share

- 2023-04: $12.93 per share

- 2023-05: $11.38 per share

- 2023-06: $12.68 per share

- 2023-07: $15.87 per share

- 2023-08: $14.98 per share

- 2023-09: $13.92 per share

- 2023-10: $11.12 per share

- 2023-11: $11.47 per share

- 2023-12: $11.57 per share

- 2024-01: $12.19 per share

- 2024-02: $14.30 per share

- 2024-03: $14.65 per share

- 2024-04: $12.30 per share

- 2024-05: $12.32 per share

- 2024-06: $11.84 per share

- 2024-07: $11.30 per share

- 2024-08: $10.57 per share

- 2024-09: $9.84 per share

- 2024-10: $7.60 per share

- 2024-11: $8.09 per share

- 2024-12: $8.26 per share

- 2025-01: $9.08 per share

- 2025-02: $8.45 per share

- 2025-03: $7.40 per share

- 2025-04: $7.95 per share

- 2025-05: $8.60 per share

- 2025-06: $8.55 per share

- 2025-07: $8.04 per share

- 2025-08: $8.44 per share

- 2025-09: $9.45 per share

- 2025-10: $10.21 per share

- 2025-11: $10.67 per share

- 2025-12: $10.25 per share

- 2026-01: $8.69 per share

- 2026-02: $11.27 per share

- 2026-03: $10.42 per share

- 2026-04: $12.12 per share

- 2026-05: $14.70 per share

- 2026-06: $13.02 per share

- 2026-07: $14.71 per share

- 2026-08: $13.58 per share

- 2026-09: $12.50 per share

- 2026-10: $13.35 per share

## Annual estimated value (USD per share)

- FY2022: low $10.26 per share, central $11.32 per share, high $12.74 per share

- FY2023: low $10.95 per share, central $12.25 per share, high $13.97 per share

- FY2024: low $10.17 per share, central $11.42 per share, high $13.08 per share

- FY2025: low $9.88 per share, central $11.09 per share, high $12.70 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

## Sources

[Original 20-F filing](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1877787/000187778726000015/zgn-20251231.htm); period 2025-12-31, filed 2026-03-20.

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.