# Zto Express Cayman (2057.HK)

Canonical: https://gigainvestors.com/s/2057.HK

Analysis as of: 2026-10-16T07:35:09.530Z. Financial observations: FY2014–FY2025.

Listing currency: HKD. Reporting currency: CNY.

## Verdict

Not a wonderful business

Quality tests for Buy: not passed (profit record: pass; earnings resilience is evidence only). Published buy qualification: no.

Share price: HKD 157.30 per share; close as of 2026-10-15.

Estimated value: low HKD 238.30 per share, central HKD 323.42 per share, high HKD 372.99 per share. Buy at or below the central value HKD 323.42 per share. Valuation as of 2026-10-16T07:35:09.530Z; scenarios are not confidence intervals.

Expected annual return: 19.1% at the stated quote. About 19.1% a year at today's price (required return 10.0%). required return 10.0% a year (10% floor; HK 10-year bond 4.0% + 4 points).

## Checklist

### understandable: pass

- 0 revenue declines in the last 10 years (informational)

- Financial history: 10 years

- Years with declining revenue: 0

- Years with a net loss: 0

- Operating margin variation: 0.15×

Chart: Operating margin; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 0.28×

- FY2017: 0.29×

- FY2018: 0.25×

- FY2019: 0.25×

- FY2020: 0.19×

- FY2021: 0.18×

- FY2022: 0.22×

- FY2023: 0.26×

- FY2024: 0.27×

- FY2025: 0.21×

### moat: fail

- Recent gross margin fell 5.2pp below the typical margin (limit 4pp)

- ROIC, median of available years: 17.5%

- ROIC, second-lowest year: 13.7%

- Typical minus recent gross margin: 5.2 pp

- Typical gross margin (annual median): 30.2%

- Recent gross margin (lower of latest and 3-year median): 25.0%

- Years with nonpositive capital: 0

- Capital spending / revenue: 22.1%

- ROIC including acquisitions, ten-year median: 13.9%

Chart: ROIC excluding acquisitions; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: 43.2%

- FY2017: 45.8%

- FY2018: 30.4%

- FY2019: 24.8%

- FY2020: 14.0%

- FY2021: 12.5%

- FY2022: 13.7%

- FY2023: 16.0%

- FY2024: 16.9%

- FY2025: 18.1%

### economics: pass

- Owner earnings / net income, 5-yr: 0.82×

- Cash conversion uses consolidated totals: No

- Owner earnings, five-year total: CNY 31B

- Net income, five-year total: CNY 38B

- Return on incremental invested capital: 18.9%

- Working capital / revenue, annual change: 0.5 pp

- Working capital / revenue, change between three-year averages: 3.2 pp

- Working capital / revenue, final three-year average: -0.9%

Chart: Annual owner cash / profit; fiscal year observations.

- FY2021: 0.18×

- FY2022: 0.80×

- FY2023: 0.82×

- FY2024: 0.99×

- FY2025: 0.99×

### management: pass

- buybacks leaned toward cheaper years (informational)

- ROIC first 3 years vs last 3 years: 43.2% vs 16.9%

- Per-share earnings: 3.24 to 10.52 (three-year endpoint medians)

- Management verdict uses per-share economic progress: Yes

- Ordinary dilution, 10-year annual growth: 3.2%

- Ordinary dilution, 5-year annual growth: 0.6%

- Diluted shares, 10-year annual growth: 3.2%

- Diluted shares, 5-year annual growth: 0.6%

- Per-share value growth: 15.9%

- Per-share value change: CNY 7.28

- Per-share value, starting three-year median: CNY 3.24

- Per-share value, ending three-year median: CNY 10.52

- Buybacks concentrated in cheaper years (correlation): 0.26

- Average buyback yield: 1.1%

- Buyback history: 6 years

- Debt-funded buybacks: No

- Acquisition spending: CNY 3.6B

- Cumulative net income, 10 years: CNY 58B

- ROIC, first three-year median: 43.2%

- ROIC, last three-year median: 16.9%

Chart: Earnings per share; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: CNY 3.24

- FY2017: CNY 4.40

- FY2018: CNY 5.82

- FY2019: CNY 7.23

- FY2020: CNY 5.42

- FY2021: CNY 5.80

- FY2022: CNY 8.30

- FY2023: CNY 10.43

- FY2024: CNY 10.52

- FY2025: CNY 11.06

### accounting: pass

- Sloan accruals: -3.2%

- Receivables to sales index (DSRI): 0.66×

- Restructuring years, last five: 0

- Stock compensation / operating cash flow: 1.9%

- Earnings backed by cash: Yes

- Operating cash / earnings: 1.32×

- Accounting red flags: 0

- Goodwill and intangibles / equity: 0.17×

Chart: Sloan accruals; fiscal year observations.

- FY2016: -2.1%

- FY2017: -1.8%

- FY2018: -0.1%

- FY2019: -1.4%

- FY2020: -1.1%

- FY2021: -3.9%

- FY2022: -5.9%

- FY2023: -5.2%

- FY2024: -2.8%

- FY2025: -3.2%

## Holders

- [Richard Pzena](https://gigainvestors.com/PIM): tracked 13F investor; follow the investor page for holding quarter and amounts.

## Price story

Down 35% since Nov 2021 · sales +10.9%

Story as of 2026-10-16T10:00:03.849Z; price observation 2026-10-15.

Price needs cash profits to shrink 4.6% a year for ten years

### Sales · FY2024–2025

sales +10.9%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: CNY 9.8B 

- FY2017: CNY 13B 

- FY2018: CNY 18B 

- FY2019: CNY 22B 

- FY2020: CNY 25B 

- FY2021: CNY 30B 

- FY2022: CNY 35B 

- FY2023: CNY 38B 

- FY2024: CNY 44B 

- FY2025: CNY 49B 

### Gross margin · FY2025

gross margin 25%; source https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/; observed 2026-10-16.

- FY2016: 35.2% 

- FY2017: 33.3% 

- FY2018: 30.5% 

- FY2019: 29.9% 

- FY2020: 23.1% 

- FY2021: 21.7% 

- FY2022: 25.6% 

- FY2023: 30.4% 

- FY2024: 31.0% 

- FY2025: 25.0% 

## Owner memo

Memo as of 2026-10-16T08:06:05.509Z.

### How it makes money

Operates in integrated freight & logistics; annual sales are CNY 49.1 billion.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/ZTOB.F.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.530Z); FY2025: revenue 49098667000; grossProfit 12271441000; margin = grossProfit / revenue.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 2057.HK: ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. It also offers less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics services; integrated logistics solutions for warehousing, distribution, and transportation; and freight forwarding services. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

### Why customers stay

Margins ranged from 25% to 31% during 2023–25; it earns 17.5% on its capital.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/ZTOB.F.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.530Z); FY2023: grossProfit / revenue = 30.4%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/ZTOB.F.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.530Z); FY2024: grossProfit / revenue = 31%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/ZTOB.F.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.530Z); FY2025: grossProfit / revenue = 25%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.530Z); 10-year return on capital observations [[2016,0.43163297326955197],[2017,0.45838283986481887],[2018,0.30441975544318495],[2019,0.2484239973427669],[2020,0.13983169956107336],[2021,0.12514342049017782],[2022,0.1366251446466379],[2023,0.15998630068111305],[2024,0.1685232805219131],[2025,0.18131187195230036]]; median 0.17491757623710674. ROIC follows the displayed moat series; financial companies use return on tangible equity.

### Where the cash goes

Reinvests 30.9% of cash earnings; earns 18.9% on new investment.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.530Z); FY2016: growth capex 1160629050.9586568; upkeep 1528579949.0413432; cash acquisitions 115454000; owner earnings 850253050.9586568. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 1.5008273707690651.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.530Z); FY2017: growth capex 1174477161.0886455; upkeep 1652261838.9113545; owner earnings 2067767161.0886455. Growth capex / owner earnings = 0.5679929458161539.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.530Z); FY2018: growth capex 1771724520.867519; upkeep 2209551479.132481; cash acquisitions 110423000; owner earnings 3027191520.867519. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.6217470906261463.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.530Z); FY2019: growth capex 2087842893.0289516; upkeep 3138575106.9710484; cash acquisitions 19581000; owner earnings 3639501893.0289516. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.5790418455518543.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/ZTOB.F.json#2021-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.530Z); FY2021: growth capex 3358080398.203768; upkeep 5969700601.796232; owner earnings 845477198.2037678. Growth capex / owner earnings = 3.9718166324746225.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/ZTOB.F.json#2022-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.530Z); FY2022: growth capex 3555233966.453655; upkeep 3857498033.546345; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 5474090566.453655. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.6494656826178314.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/ZTOB.F.json#2023-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.530Z); FY2023: growth capex 2383483796.6064863; upkeep 4286297203.3935137; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 7209489396.606486. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.3306036898713513.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/ZTOB.F.json#2024-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.530Z); FY2024: growth capex 2878723000; upkeep 3023406000; cash acquisitions 0; owner earnings 8704617000. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.33071219560837656.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/ZTOB.F.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.530Z); FY2025: growth capex 2694890000; upkeep 3379478000; cash acquisitions 86931000; owner earnings 9000442200. Growth capex plus acquisitions / owner earnings = 0.30907603628630603.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.530Z); Incremental return on capital 0.1891790266134369, from the economics test's unchanged annual inputs.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.530Z); Dividend observations: [[2016,0],[2017,895136000],[2018,895136000],[2019,1270773000],[2020,1649308000],[2021,1353969000],[2022,1323205000],[2023,2072509000],[2024,5605451000],[2025,3755452000]]. Zero only counted when supported by a complete cash-flow statement.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/api/fundamentals/ZTOB.F.json#2025-12-31 (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.530Z); FY2025: cash repurchases 1252741000 CNY.

### Are managers owners

Insiders own 24% of the company.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16); 2057.HK SharesStats.PercentInsiders = 23.968 percentage points; cache date 2026-10-16.

### What the price says

The price assumes cash profits shrink 4.6% yearly over ten years; actual growth was 27.3%.

- Source: https://eodhd.com/financial-apis/stock-etfs-fundamental-data-feeds/ (filed 2026-10-16T07:35:09.530Z); Ten-year compound average after fade. Initial solved rate -0.07701135733986558. Price 157.3; FX 1.1727222788982186; discount 0.1; same standard ten-year fade to terminal 0.03. FY2015 owner earnings/share 0.9795220986417021 → FY2025 10.96541411130703. Closing-price date 2026-10-15.

## Monthly share-price history (HKD per share)

- 2020-09: HKD 224.20 per share

- 2020-10: HKD 229.20 per share

- 2020-11: HKD 222.60 per share

- 2020-12: HKD 226.00 per share

- 2021-01: HKD 250.00 per share

- 2021-02: HKD 259.00 per share

- 2021-03: HKD 217.00 per share

- 2021-04: HKD 247.00 per share

- 2021-05: HKD 248.60 per share

- 2021-06: HKD 234.00 per share

- 2021-07: HKD 209.20 per share

- 2021-08: HKD 217.40 per share

- 2021-09: HKD 242.00 per share

- 2021-10: HKD 234.20 per share

- 2021-11: HKD 242.00 per share

- 2021-12: HKD 216.40 per share

- 2022-01: HKD 221.00 per share

- 2022-02: HKD 225.20 per share

- 2022-03: HKD 199.60 per share

- 2022-04: HKD 219.20 per share

- 2022-05: HKD 198.60 per share

- 2022-06: HKD 203.20 per share

- 2022-07: HKD 201.40 per share

- 2022-08: HKD 207.40 per share

- 2022-09: HKD 188.30 per share

- 2022-10: HKD 131.90 per share

- 2022-11: HKD 193.70 per share

- 2022-12: HKD 211.60 per share

- 2023-01: HKD 220.80 per share

- 2023-02: HKD 188.00 per share

- 2023-03: HKD 224.00 per share

- 2023-04: HKD 214.80 per share

- 2023-05: HKD 197.80 per share

- 2023-06: HKD 196.50 per share

- 2023-07: HKD 214.60 per share

- 2023-08: HKD 190.50 per share

- 2023-09: HKD 190.50 per share

- 2023-10: HKD 183.10 per share

- 2023-11: HKD 174.80 per share

- 2023-12: HKD 162.00 per share

- 2024-01: HKD 126.80 per share

- 2024-02: HKD 150.70 per share

- 2024-03: HKD 169.80 per share

- 2024-04: HKD 166.80 per share

- 2024-05: HKD 179.80 per share

- 2024-06: HKD 164.20 per share

- 2024-07: HKD 149.20 per share

- 2024-08: HKD 171.20 per share

- 2024-09: HKD 195.90 per share

- 2024-10: HKD 179.70 per share

- 2024-11: HKD 147.50 per share

- 2024-12: HKD 151.30 per share

- 2025-01: HKD 151.00 per share

- 2025-02: HKD 149.70 per share

- 2025-03: HKD 153.50 per share

- 2025-04: HKD 146.30 per share

- 2025-05: HKD 138.30 per share

- 2025-06: HKD 138.50 per share

- 2025-07: HKD 151.90 per share

- 2025-08: HKD 140.60 per share

- 2025-09: HKD 147.50 per share

- 2025-10: HKD 142.60 per share

- 2025-11: HKD 159.50 per share

- 2025-12: HKD 162.30 per share

- 2026-01: HKD 173.60 per share

- 2026-02: HKD 191.50 per share

- 2026-03: HKD 188.50 per share

- 2026-04: HKD 195.50 per share

- 2026-05: HKD 173.70 per share

- 2026-06: HKD 171.60 per share

- 2026-07: HKD 186.80 per share

- 2026-08: HKD 167.20 per share

- 2026-09: HKD 153.10 per share

- 2026-10: HKD 157.30 per share

## Annual estimated value (HKD per share)

- FY2018: low HKD 53.44 per share, central HKD 57.43 per share, high HKD 62.74 per share

- FY2019: low HKD 77.06 per share, central HKD 84.94 per share, high HKD 95.45 per share

- FY2020: low HKD 85.60 per share, central HKD 94.46 per share, high HKD 106.26 per share

- FY2021: low HKD 87.69 per share, central HKD 98.07 per share, high HKD 111.88 per share

- FY2022: low HKD 104.07 per share, central HKD 115.86 per share, high HKD 131.56 per share

- FY2023: low HKD 110.25 per share, central HKD 122.77 per share, high HKD 139.44 per share

- FY2024: low HKD 155.44 per share, central HKD 211.27 per share, high HKD 243.78 per share

- FY2025: low HKD 204.90 per share, central HKD 279.81 per share, high HKD 323.44 per share

Historical values use today's bond yield for every fiscal year

Historical values use today's FX rate into trading currency for every fiscal year

Historical values use current restated fundamentals and current commodity classification; they are not point-in-time estimates

Prior published observations retained from 2026-10-15T06:40:51.245Z where newer inputs omit a numeric field or fiscal period.

## Sources

Estimates depend on assumptions and are not guarantees or investment advice. Underlying data remains subject to its source licenses; public reading does not grant bulk redistribution rights.